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Mood: Choppy → Rattled. Intel down about 30% is dragging chips down about 5% and the Nasdaq about 2.6%, with the S&P off about 1.2% and volatility up about 6%. mrkts.gg

Nasdaq 100 futures -2.6%, S&P -1.1% on AI spending worries ($QQQ). Also moving: AMZN -6%: EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 est, FCF -$42.4B TTM | INTC -25%: Q4 EPS guide 25c vs 43c est.

$XOM leads 40 reports today: Exxon Mobil before the open, EPS est $3.90, options pricing a 2.0% move. Also before the open: ABBV, CVX, AZN. Key data: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chic… at 9:45 AM (prior 58.8).

Intel’s 25% plunge drags chips and the Nasdaq lower into month-end. Second straight night of big-tech pain, and this time the rest of the market isn’t catching the bid. What it means for the open: mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-10-30

AWS grew 39% and it still wasn't enough. The capex bill is the story. Jassy on the call: Amazon expects to "spend meaningfully more in 2027." $AMZN -5.4% after hours at $231.10.

Alphabet fell 12.7% and dragged the Nasdaq down 1.4%. Underneath, the equal-weight S&P rose 1.2% as money rotated into health care, real estate and utilities. A Choppy close, with Amazon and Intel sliding after hours. Tonight's recap: mrkts.gg/desk/recap-2026-10-29

Options underpriced $AMZN. -7.4% after hours vs ±6.8% priced: AWS +39% (37% last qtr) but EPS $1.89 missed $1.96 est, ads $19.6B vs $20.8B, and 2026 capex stays ~$220B. Sales $201.9B, top of the $197-202B guide. Q4 guide $240-247B, op income $28.5-33.5B.

$AMZN options price about ±6.8% (±17 pts) through Friday's expiry into tonight's print, up from ±6.5% Monday. EPS est $2.01. It reports after GOOGL fell about 12% today on capex worries. INTC also reports after the close.

$GOOGL -12.2% is dragging the tape while LLY +6.8% holds up best. S&P -0.35% at 12:31 PM ET, 11 of 18 megacaps green.

Thesis Thursday: is the AI spending boom slowing, or just getting harder to pay for? Chipmakers are up about 7% this week while Alphabet and Meta sold off on their reports. Amazon reports tonight. Bull case, bear case, and what settles it: mrkts.gg/desk/thesis-thursday-2026-10-29

Toolkit Tuesday: the long straddle. Boeing's options priced about a 4.3% move into its Oct 27 report. It fell about 10.7%, and a straddle bought at Monday's close roughly doubled. Coca-Cola's lost about 28% the same day. How it works, and when it fails: mrkts.gg/desk/toolkit-2026-10-27

$SPY is sitting just below its 769.77 gamma flip. Under it, moves tend to speed up; over it, they tend to calm. Spot 769.63; call wall 770, put wall 762.

$GOOGL -11%: search $63.35B misses, free cash flow -$9.07B. Also moving: Q3 GDP +3.4% vs 3.1% est; Sep core PCE 3.1% y/y | MSFT +2%: revenue $92.28B vs $90.69B est, Azure +48%.

Hot growth, in-line core. Q3 GDP 3.4% vs 3.2% est (prior 2.2%). Core PCE 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, both as expected. Headline PCE 0.5% m/m, 3.6% y/y. Nothing here talks the Fed out of a December hike. $SPY

$AMZN leads 99 reports today: Amazon after the close, EPS est $2.01, options pricing a 6.6% move. Also before the open: LLY, MA, MRK. Also after the close: INTC, SNDK, GILD. Key data: PCE Core M/M at 8:30 AM (est 0.3%, prior 0.2%), plus PCE Core Y/Y at 8:30 AM, +5 more.

Alphabet’s 10% slide pulls tech lower ahead of the 8:30 AM inflation report. Microsoft is up, ServiceNow and Fortinet got crushed, and small caps are bidding. Here’s the setup into PCE and Amazon tonight: mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-10-29

Options nailed $MSFT and underpriced GOOGL. MSFT +3.9% after hours vs ±4.2% priced: Azure +48% against a 44-45% guide, EPS $4.89 vs $4.71 est. GOOGL -8.5% vs ±5.3% priced: Cloud revenue +103% to $30.7B, but search missed at $63.4B vs $65.0B est.

Options price a smaller move for $MSFT than GOOGL tonight: about ±4.2% (±22 pts) on MSFT through Friday's expiry vs ±5.3% on GOOGL. MSFT was ±4.4% Monday. EPS ests $4.71 and $2.94.

Mood moved from Waiting to Choppy. The S&P whipsawed through a range of about 0.5% after the Fed and sits up about 0.2%, with chips up about 1.3% and crude up about 2.6%. PCE is next, Thursday 8:30 AM ET. mrkts.gg

Hawkish hold. Warsh: "It's our responsibility to get inflation down." $SPY -0.06% since the 2 PM statement, +0.16% on the day. MSFT and GOOGL report after the bell.

The hold was priced (~88% odds going in). The tell: 2 dissents for a hike, Cook and Hammack. Fed keeps 3.75-4.00% and says "Inflation remains elevated." $SPY -0.1% since 2 PM, +0.1% on the day. Warsh presser at 2:30 PM ET.

Into the 2 PM Fed: $SPY is above its 770.1 gamma flip but net dealer gamma is negative: mixed signal, no clear lean toward calmer or bigger moves. Spot 770.9; call wall 771, put wall 768. The flip climbed from 767.05 at 11 AM, so spot now sits under a point above it.

$XOM +1.9% is carrying the tape while TSLA -1.5% drags. S&P +0.21% at 12:34 PM ET, 9 of 18 megacaps green.

Whale Wednesday: someone paid about $23.5M for Tesla April 2027 $390 calls on a strike with just 222 contracts open. Most other big trades this week look like hedges into the Fed and the midterms. Flow is a clue, not a signal. mrkts.gg/desk/whale-wednesday-2026-10-28

$SPY is above its 767.05 gamma flip but net dealer gamma is negative: mixed signal, no clear lean toward calmer or bigger moves. Spot 770.28; call wall 773, put wall 768.

History leans bullish here: the S&P 500 has risen in 48 of 69 years from Oct 28–Nov 16 (1957–2025). Avg +1.83%, median +1.65%. Window starts today. $SPY Seasonal tendency, not a forecast.

Fed day: futures price ~88% hold, ~12% hike at 2 PM ET, up from ~9% this morning. December is the real meeting: ~74% odds of a hike to 4.00-4.25%. No dot plot today, so it comes down to Warsh at 2:30. $SPY

Mood moved from Choppy to Waiting. The S&P is flat into the 2:00 PM ET Fed decision, with crude up about 2% and chips up about 1%. mrkts.gg

Fed decision 2 PM ET; hold at 3.75–4.00% expected ($SPY). Also moving: SK Hynix +7% on record Q3; op profit +632% y/y | VRT +16%: EPS $2.21 vs $1.82, FY guide raised.

$MSFT leads 99 reports today: Microsoft after the close, EPS est $4.71, options pricing a 4.2% move. Also before the open: GEV, APH, SAN. Also after the close: GOOGL, GOOG, KLAC. Key data: Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods at 8:30 AM (prior -132.6B), +3 more.

Crude climbs on a reported US military warning as Fed day arrives. Oil is rebuilding its war premium while AI hardware keeps beating. Here's what's priced in before the 2 PM decision and tonight's Microsoft and Alphabet reports. mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-10-28

Chips jumped 3% on the eve of Fed day, but Boeing's 10.7% drop held the Dow flat. A Choppy close, and chip beats are getting sold after hours. mrkts.gg/desk/recap-2026-10-27

$ORCL +4.6% is carrying the tape while NFLX -1.9% drags. S&P +0.63% at 12:00 PM ET, 9 of 18 megacaps green.

Dealers are short gamma below 770.94 on $SPY, so moves tend to get bigger from here. Spot 768.63; call wall 772, put wall 760.

Futures up a day before Fed: S&P +0.38%, NDX +0.53% ($SPY). Also moving: Brent -0.9% to below $115 on Iran peace-talk hopes | NVDA to invest $3B in META's up-to-$95B AI raise.

$V leads 100 reports today: VISA after the close, EPS est $3.43, options pricing a 2.9% move. Also before the open: KO, NVS, BA. Also after the close: STX, WM, HOOD. Key data: Durable Goods at 8:30 AM (est 1.2%, prior 0%), +3 more.

Attack near a Saudi oil hub lifts crude as the Fed meeting begins. Crude's war premium is creeping back, stocks are flat, and Celestica is up 16% premarket. Here's what matters before the open: mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-10-27

Choppy close: Anthropic's IPO filing lifted chips about 2.7% and the Nasdaq proxy 1.1%, while the Dow barely moved and crude fell about 1.9%. Fed decides Wednesday. mrkts.gg/desk/recap-2026-10-26

$TSLA +6.16%, NFLX −3.99% lead · Heatmap intraday 12:33 PM ET · S&P +0.74%

Fault Line Monday: the Houthis say they hit Saudi Arabia's pipeline around Hormuz. Riyadh hasn't confirmed, and crude is still lower on diplomacy. What's priced in and the next date to watch: mrkts.gg/desk/fault-lines-2026-10-26

$SPY Near the flip — Spot is above the flip but net GEX is negative. Mixed signal, no clear dealer bias.

Futures up into Fed week: Dow +0.5%, S&P +0.3%, NDX +0.3% $SPY QQQ

Oil eases on Qatar mediation as a quiet Monday waits for the Fed Crude is off about 2.3% premarket after a one-day pause on Iran strikes. Is that relief or just timing? mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-10-26

Sunday Setup: Wednesday decides whether big tech can outrun the Fed and $100 oil. Fed at 2 PM ET, then Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Here's the whole week, day by day: mrkts.gg/desk/sunday-setup-2026-10-25

Choppy close. Crude jumped about 4% on Iran fears, Amex fell 3.7% after its report and the Dow lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq held flat on a chip rebound. Today's recap: mrkts.gg/briefs/recap-2026-10-23

$XOM +2.79%, LLY −2.20% lead · Heatmap intraday 12:32 PM ET · S&P −0.27%

$SPY Short gamma — Spot is below the flip and net GEX is negative. Dealer hedging tends to amplify moves.

Dow futures -0.8%, S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3% after AI selloff $SPY QQQ

15 reports · Fri Oct 23 · BMO $AXP, SLB, E · Data: 9:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI (prior 57) +2 more