- Premarket vs Wednesday’s close: S&P proxy −0.20%, Nasdaq −1.01%, small caps +0.51%, Dow +0.50%, long Treasuries +0.47%, vol flat, crude −0.55%. The chip ETF is −1.70% and gold −1.08%.
- The story is a split verdict on big tech: Alphabet is −10.5% after missing on revenue and search, while Microsoft is +2.8% on faster cloud growth. ServiceNow is −18.1% and Fortinet −26.3%.
- Today: PCE inflation, spending and jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET (headline PCE forecast 3.7% y/y, prior 3.4%). Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Caterpillar report before the open; Amazon, Intel and Starbucks after the close.
Key numbers
Thursday, October 29 opens on a tech earnings split, with September PCE inflation due at 8:30 AM ET. Alphabet is down about 10.5% premarket after posts say revenue, search and YouTube ads all came in below estimates, while Microsoft is up about 2.8% after posts say its cloud unit grew 48%.
Setup into the open
Wednesday’s last mood read was Choppy after the Fed held its range at 3.75% to 4%. As of about 6:15 AM ET, the Nasdaq proxy is −1.01%, the chip ETF −1.70% and the S&P proxy −0.20%. Small caps are +0.51%, the Dow proxy +0.50% and long Treasuries +0.47%. Gold is −1.08%, crude −0.55%, and the vol proxy and dollar are flat. Bitcoin is near $80,040, about +0.4% since midnight.
What to watch
Last night’s software reports were punished. ServiceNow ($1.02 est, implied about 9.0%) is −18.1% and Fortinet ($0.86, about 10.0%) is −26.3%, both double their implied moves. KLA is +3.1%, T-Mobile +3.6% and Chipotle +7.2%.
This morning Eli Lilly ($5.38 est, implied about 4.9%), Mastercard ($5.14, about 2.3%), Caterpillar ($7.12, about 5.1%) and Merck ($2.12, about 3.4%) report. Jobless claims (prior 194,000) also land at 8:30 AM ET. After the close: Amazon ($2.01, about 6.8%), Intel ($0.39, about 7.6%), Sandisk and Starbucks.
What X is saying
Posts say ServiceNow guided contract growth slower than expected and Fortinet trimmed its service revenue outlook despite beating. Accounts report Microsoft cut its calendar-year spending plan to about $170 billion on delayed third-party capacity. Posts also say two Fed officials dissented in favor of a hike. These are unconfirmed.
Insight
This is a stock-picker’s morning, not a broad sell-off. Money is leaving the biggest tech names and software for small caps and the Dow, and the market is punishing any sign of slowing growth. Both Microsoft and Alphabet spent less than expected, which takes some heat off the AI spending trade and helps explain the chip ETF’s drop. A hot PCE print would turn a rotation into a broader wobble.
Desk stance
Publish mood is Choppy, matching Wednesday’s last read. A Nasdaq proxy holding below −1% after the open with the vol proxy rising would move the 9:45 refresh toward Spooked. Small caps holding their gain would keep it Choppy.
- CoolingThe AI spending boomMicrosoft and Alphabet both spent less than expected last quarter, posts say, and the chip ETF is down about 1.7% premarket.
- HeatingThe average stock catching upSmall caps are up about 0.5% and the equal-weight S&P about 0.4% premarket while the Nasdaq proxy falls about 1.0%.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-10-29: PCE price index (Sept) 8:30 AM ET, y/y prior 3.4%, forecast 3.7%, m/m prior 0.3%, forecast 0.5%; Core PCE (Sept) 8:30 AM ET, y/y prior 3%, forecast 3.1%, m/m prior 0.2%, forecast 0.3%; Consumer spending (Sept) 8:30 AM ET, prior 0.9%, forecast 0.6%; Personal income (Sept) 8:30 AM ET, prior 0.2%, forecast 0.3%; Weekly jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, prior 194,000, forecast 200,000
- Earnings premarket 2026-10-29: LLY (EPS est 5.38, implied ~4.9%), MA (5.14, ~2.3%), CAT (7.12, ~5.1%), MRK (2.12, ~3.4%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-10-29: AMZN (2.01, ~6.8%), INTC (0.39, ~7.6%), SNDK (47.00, ~6.8%), SBUX (0.73, ~5.1%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-10-28: MSFT (4.71, ~4.3%), GOOGL (2.94, ~5.3%), NOW (1.02, ~9.0%), FTNT (0.86, ~10.0%), KLAC (1.18, ~5.9%), TMUS (2.86, ~4.7%), CMG (0.29, ~6.9%)
- Premarket last trades 6:07–6:18 AM ET vs Oct 28 close: SPY 770.75 (−0.20%), QQQ 718.30 (−1.01%), IWM 282.73 (+0.51%), DIA 527.28 (+0.50%), TLT 81.37 (+0.47%), VXX 17.80 (+0.06%), USO 165.65 (−0.55%), GLD 369.48 (−1.08%), SMH 558.00 (−1.70%), GOOGL 290.85 (−10.48%), MSFT 545.70 (+2.77%), NOW 123.00 (−18.07%), FTNT 128.25 (−26.33%), KLAC 163.75 (+3.14%), TMUS 153.45 (+3.63%), CMG 30.80 (+7.21%); RSP 218.25 (+0.38%) at 4:19 AM ET; UUP 29.07 (+0.02%) at 4:00 PM ET Oct 28
- BTC mark ~$80,041 at 6:18 AM ET (+0.38% vs ET midnight open 79,742)
- Wednesday Oct 28 last mood read Choppy (3:37 PM ET refresh, data/market/hero.json)
- Fed decision Oct 28: target range held at 3.75% to 4%
- @wallstengine — “Revenue: $127.6B (Est. $128.22B) 🔴; +25% YoY”
- @FirstSquawk — “MICROSOFT Q1 CLOUD REVENUE $63.9 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $61.62 BLN, WITH AZURE REVENUE EX-FX UP 48%, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF +44.8%, AND CAPEX $39.37 BLN, BELOW ESTIMATE OF $45.93 BLN”
- @FirstSquawk — “MICROSOFT CFO SAYS CALENDAR-YEAR CAPITAL SPEND SHOULD BE ABOUT $170 BLN, WITH CAPEX EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FISCAL YEAR ALSO FROM THIRD-PARTY CAPACITY DELIVERIES THAT SHIFTED TO H2”
- @wallstengine — “CY26 CapEx: ~$170B, lowered on 3rd-party capacity delays (Prior: ~$175B)”
- @wallstengine — “ServiceNow expects growth to slow to 18.5% in Q4, below Street's 19.7% estimate”
- @wallstengine — “Fortinet cut FY26 service revenue guidance to $5.15B-$5.17B from $5.18B-$5.22B”
- @Newsquawk — “The Fed kept rates unchanged, as expected, with hawkish dissents from Hammack and Cook”
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