- The close scored Choppy: S&P proxy +0.70%, Nasdaq proxy +1.10%, Dow proxy +0.31%, small caps +0.45%, vol proxy −2.14%, long Treasuries +0.42%, the dollar +0.19%, crude −1.92% and Bitcoin about +0.5%.
- The gain was narrow: the chip ETF rose 2.74% and tech 1.69% after Anthropic's IPO filing and Tesla added 5.23%, but the equal-weight S&P rose only 0.36%. Communication stocks fell 1.58% as Meta slid 1.89% on a $35 billion raise, and Verizon fell 3.47% on a revenue miss.
- After hours Celestica is up about 13.9% and Cadence about 3.1% on beats. Tuesday brings durable goods at 8:30 AM ET and consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET, with Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and PayPal before the open and Visa and Seagate after the close. The Fed decides Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.
Key numbers
Monday, October 26 turned on one filing. Anthropic publicly filed for a Nasdaq IPO before the open, and accounts report its S-1 showed first-half revenue of $16.3 billion. That revived the AI trade that cracked last Thursday. The chip ETF rose about 2.7% and the Nasdaq proxy about 1.1%, while the S&P proxy gained about 0.7%. The Dow proxy managed only about 0.3%, and that gap between tech and the Dow is what scores the close Choppy rather than Grinding.
It was a narrow day. The equal-weight S&P rose about 0.4%, half the S&P proxy's gain, and small caps about 0.5%. Tech led the groups at about +1.7%, then industrials at about +1.4% and discretionary at about +1.0%, helped by Tesla's 5.2% jump. Communication stocks fell about 1.6% as Meta lost about 1.9%, Alphabet 1.0% and Netflix 3.0%. Meta announced plans to raise about $35 billion in stock, and posts say Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom may buy up to $5 billion of it. The vol proxy fell about 2.1% and crude about 1.9%.
Verizon fell about 3.5% after its report. Adjusted earnings were $1.31 a share against the calendar's $1.27 estimate and it raised its full-year profit outlook, but street-reported revenue of $34.3 billion missed the $34.76 billion forecast. After the close, Celestica is up about 13.9% on street-reported earnings of $3.30 a share against the calendar's $3.02, and Cadence Design is up about 3.1% after beating at $2.11 and raising its full-year guidance. Welltower is down about 1.5% despite a higher outlook.
Research
The filing matters for chip stocks because it puts numbers on demand. Accounts summarizing the S-1 list about $161 billion of Broadcom chip leases, at least $114.5 billion with Google and $110 billion with Amazon. The same filing shows a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half, the other side of that spending. Oil stayed tense under the surface: posts report US crude settled at $101.76, down 1.46%, while Brent reversed its losses to trade near $117 and the strategic reserve fell to its lowest level since 1982.
What X is saying
Posts say the IPO filing revived enthusiasm for AI ahead of reports from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon this week. Accounts also flagged the ten largest leveraged stock ETFs drawing about $12 billion in a month, and crude options leaning toward calls the most since September 10 as traders pay for protection against a supply shock. These are claims, not confirmed facts.
Insight
Thursday's chip selloff was a vote against AI spending; Monday was a vote for it. But the bounce stayed narrow. The equal-weight index lagged, the Dow barely moved, and Meta fell on the cost of funding its own build-out. The real test comes Wednesday: the Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET, and the big tech reports that follow have to show the spending still pays. First, Tuesday brings durable goods at 8:30 AM ET and consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET.
- HeatingThe AI spending boomThe chip ETF rose 2.74% after Anthropic's IPO filing laid out compute commitments running to 2045, reversing much of Thursday's AI spending scare.
- CoolingOil keeps climbingCrude fell 1.92% and settled near $101.76, a second day of giving back last week's jump, though energy still rose 0.43%.
- CoolingThe average stock catching upBig tech took the lead back: the equal-weight S&P rose 0.36%, about half the S&P proxy's 0.70%.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-10-26: no releases listed
- Earnings 2026-10-26: VZ before the open (EPS est $1.27); after the close WELL ($1.64), CDNS ($2.04), NUE ($5.71), PSA ($4.27), CLS ($3.02)
- Economic calendar 2026-10-27: Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET (forecast 1.2%, prior 0%), Case-Shiller 9:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET (forecast 81.2, prior 81.9), New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET (forecast 655,000, prior 684,000); 2026-10-28: Fed rate decision 2:00 PM ET
- Earnings 2026-10-27: KO ($0.87), BA (−$0.21), UPS ($1.63), PYPL ($1.31) before the open; V ($3.43), STX ($7.44) after the close
- Quotes as of 4:00 PM ET 2026-10-26 vs 2026-10-23 closes: SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, RSP, SMH, TLT, VXX, UUP, USO, GLD, XLK, XLI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLU, XLV, XLP, XLC, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MSFT, INTC, TSLA, META, GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, VZ
- After-hours quotes as of about 5:12 PM ET vs the 4:00 PM ET close: CLS, CDNS, WELL, NUE
- Bitcoin as of 5:13 PM ET vs midnight ET
- @FirstSquawk — “ANTHROPIC PUBLICLY FILES FOR NASDAQ IPO UNDER SYMBOL 'ANT'”
- @KobeissiLetter — “Anthropic posted H1 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion with a net loss of $80.7 billion”
- @wallstengine — “ANTHROPIC'S S-1 SHOWS COMPUTE COMMITMENTS RUNNING ALL THE WAY TO 2045”
- @FirstSquawk — “US STOCKS REBOUNDED AS ANTHROPIC FILED FOR AN IPO, REVIVING ENTHUSIASM FOR THE AI TRADE AHEAD OF EARNINGS FROM ALPHABET, MICROSOFT AND AMAZON”
- @wallstengine — “$META announced plans to raise approximately $35 billion through two offerings”
- @FirstSquawk — “NVIDIA, AMD, BROADCOM INTERESTED TO BUY UP TO $5B OF META STOCK”
- @LiveSquawk — “Oper Rev: $34.3B (est $34.76B)”
- @LiveSquawk — “Sees FY Adj EPS: $5.04 To $5.06 (prev $4.99 To $5.04)”
- @wallstengine — “Adj. EPS: $3.30 (Est. $2.97)”
- @FirstSquawk — “ADJUSTED EPS $2.11, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $2.05”
- @FirstSquawk — “AND RAISES FY GUIDANCE”
- @FirstSquawk — “SEEING FY NORMALISED FFO/SHARE $6.47 TO $6.53, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $6.40”
- @FirstSquawk — “US CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE 1.46% LOWER AT $101.76/BBL, DOWN $1.51”
- @FirstSquawk — “BRENT OIL REVERSES LOSSES TO TRADE NEAR $117/BBL”
- @DeItaone — “STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL IN THE US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE FELL TO 282.6 MLN BARRELS LAST WEEK, LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1982”
- @KobeissiLetter — “10 largest US leveraged equity ETFs have attracted +$12 billion in inflows over the last month.”
- @DeItaone — “WTI crude oil options skew toward calls has climbed to +7.2%, its highest since September 10”
- @DeItaone — “TESLA SHARES TOUCH OVER THREE-MONTH HIGH, LAST UP 5.5%”
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