Intel’s 25% plunge drags chips and the Nasdaq lower into month-end

IN SHORT

Premarket vs Thursday’s close: S&P proxy −1.01%, Nasdaq −2.38%, small caps −0.63%, Dow +0.02%, long Treasuries +0.42%, vol +4.99%, crude +1.38%. The chip ETF is −4.93% and gold −0.93%.
The story is a second night of big-tech disappointment: Intel is −25.4% on a weak revenue outlook and a faster PC slump, Amazon −7.0% on much higher AI spending, and Sandisk −7.7%.
Today: Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET (prior 58.8), then Fed speakers Daly at 12:00 PM ET and Musalem at 12:30 PM ET. Exxon, Chevron and AbbVie report before the open; no major names report after the close.

SPY PRE

−1.01%

6:18 AM ET vs Thu close

QQQ PRE

−2.38%

6:18 AM ET · tech leads the drop

SMH PRE

−4.93%

6:18 AM ET · chips lead the selling

INTC PRE

−25.38%

Weak outlook · implied about 6.9%

AMZN PRE

−7.01%

Spending jump · implied about 6.7%

VXX PRE

+4.99%

6:17 AM ET · hedging picks up

CHICAGO PMI

9:45 AM

Prior 58.8 · no forecast listed

XOM · CVX · ABBV

Before open

Implied about 2.0%, 2.0% and 3.4%

Friday, October 30 opens with a second straight morning of big-tech pain, with Chicago PMI the first release at 9:45 AM ET. Intel is down about 25.4% premarket after a weaker revenue outlook, and Amazon is down about 7.0% after its spending jumped.

Setup into the open

Thursday closed Choppy: the Nasdaq proxy fell about 1.4% on Alphabet while the equal-weight S&P rose about 1.2%. As of about 6:15 AM ET, the Nasdaq proxy is −2.38%, the chip ETF −4.93% and the S&P proxy −1.01%. Small caps are −0.63% and the Dow proxy is flat. The vol proxy is +4.99%, long Treasuries +0.42% and crude +1.38%. Gold is −0.93% and the dollar is flat. Bitcoin is near $77,270, about −1.0% since midnight.

What to watch

Last night’s reports: Intel ($0.39 est, implied about 6.9%) is −25.4%, more than three times its implied move. Amazon ($2.01, about 6.7%) is −7.0%, right at its implied move. Sandisk ($47.00, about 6.3%) is −7.7% and Gilead ($2.17, about 3.5%) is +4.1%.

This morning Exxon ($3.90 est, implied about 2.0%), Chevron ($4.78, about 2.0%), AbbVie ($3.77, about 3.4%) and AstraZeneca report. After Chicago PMI, Fed officials Daly speaks at 12:00 PM ET and Musalem at 12:30 PM ET.

What X is saying

Posts say Intel’s CEO called the PC slowdown faster over the last two months, and accounts report a big bank cut the stock to neutral this morning. Posts say Amazon spent about $77 billion on capital projects, well above estimates. Accounts report Chevron beat on earnings and that crude rose after Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi oil sites. These are unconfirmed.

Insight

Yesterday the market sold Alphabet and bought the rest. This morning the selling is wider: small caps and the equal-weight S&P are flat to lower, so Thursday’s rotation isn’t showing up yet. The AI spending trade is now being questioned from both sides, with Amazon spending too much and Intel selling too little. A bounce in chips after the open would make this look like one bad night; selling that spreads to the Dow would not.

Desk stance

Publish mood is Choppy, Thursday’s closing read. With the Nasdaq proxy below −2% and the vol proxy up about 5%, the 9:45 refresh leans toward Spooked unless chips recover in the first 15 minutes. A Dow proxy turning lower with the S&P proxy below −1.5% would point to Rattled.

NARRATIVE WATCH

CoolingThe AI spending boomAmazon’s capital spending jumped to about $77 billion, posts say, and the chip ETF is down about 4.9% premarket with Intel off about 25.4%.
SteadyOil keeps climbingCrude is up about 1.4% premarket after accounts report Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi oil facilities, and Chevron and Exxon are up about 2%.
SteadyThe average stock catching upThe equal-weight S&P is down about 0.1% and small caps about 0.6% premarket, so the broad stocks that rose Thursday aren’t catching the tech selling yet.

SCENARIOS

Choppy

Chips bounce after the open and the equal-weight S&P turns positive

The selling stays in a few big tech names and the rotation from Thursday returns.

Spooked

The Nasdaq proxy holds near −2% and the vol proxy stays up

Tech carries the index lower while energy and health care hold up.

Rattled

Selling spreads to the Dow proxy and the S&P proxy breaks below −1.5%

Month-end turns into broad de-risking across sectors.

Bleeding

Chicago PMI and the Fed speakers sound hawkish and long Treasuries reverse lower

Rate worries stack on top of the earnings hit and nothing gets a bid.

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SOURCES ›

Economic calendar 2026-10-30: Chicago PMI (Oct) 9:45 AM ET, prior 58.8, no forecast listed; 2026-11-02: ISM manufacturing 10:00 AM ET, prior 54.5
Earnings premarket 2026-10-30: XOM (EPS est 3.90, implied ~2.0%), CVX (4.78, ~2.0%), ABBV (3.77, ~3.4%), AZN (2.60, ~5.4%); no major after-hours reports listed
Earnings afterhours 2026-10-29: INTC (0.39, ~6.9%), AMZN (2.01, ~6.7%), SNDK (47.00, ~6.3%), GILD (2.17, ~3.5%)
Quotes as of 6:14–6:18 AM ET vs Oct 29 close: SPY 761.59 (−1.01%), QQQ 698.35 (−2.38%), IWM 282.22 (−0.63%), DIA 522.85 (+0.02%), TLT 81.83 (+0.42%), VXX 18.28 (+4.99%), USO 170.51 (+1.38%), GLD 365.15 (−0.93%), SMH 534.00 (−4.93%), INTC 68.70 (−25.38%), AMZN 226.69 (−7.01%), SNDK 1228.00 (−7.67%), CVX 236.62 (+2.23%), XOM 186.97 (+2.01%); GILD 172.35 (+4.07%) at 6:06 AM ET; RSP 219.91 (−0.06%) at 5:26 AM ET; UUP 29.04 (0.00%) at 2:54 AM ET
BTC mark ~$77,274 at 6:18 AM ET (−0.99% vs ET midnight open 78,047)
Thursday Oct 29 closing mood Choppy (data/market/hero.json, evening recap)
Fed speakers per the calendar post: Daly 12:00 PM ET, Musalem 12:30 PM ET
@FirstSquawk — “AMAZON SLUMPED AFTER HOURS ON HIGHER AI SPENDING, AND INTEL FELL ON A WEAKER REVENUE OUTLOOK.”
@wallstengine — “The pace of the PC correction has accelerated over the last two months.”
@wallstengine — “BofA downgrades $INTC to Neutral”
@wallstengine — “CapEx: $77.3B (Est. $57.47B)”
@FirstSquawk — “CHEVRON: 3Q ADJ EPS $5.28, EST. $4.93”
@Newsquawk — “the Houthis said they targeted Saudi oil facilities; crude futures gained.”
@wallstengine — “12:00: Fed's Daly 12:30: Fed's Musalem”