FOMC: the Fed's rate decision
When the Fed decides on rates next, where the target range sits, and how stocks took the last six decisions.
The forecast and prior post here the week of the release.
After that: Wed, Jan 27 · Wed, Mar 17 · Federal Reserve schedule
MRKTS PROWatch dealer gamma and the walls on SPY, QQQ and IWM through the release, live.See mrkts Pro →How stocks took the last six
S&P 500, close to close, on each release day.
- Oct 28, 26+0.3%
- Sep 16, 26-0.4%
- Jul 29, 26-1.5%
- Jun 17, 26-1.2%
- Apr 29, 260.0%
- Mar 18, 26-1.4%
Past releases
Published figures, newest first.
| RELEASED | READING | ACTUAL | EST | PRIOR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 October 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.75%–4.00% In line | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.75%–4.00% | +0.3% Held after September's hike on a 10–2 vote, with two members favoring another increase. |
| Sep 16, 2026 September 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.75%–4.00% In line | 3.75%–4.00% | 3.50%–3.75% | -0.4% Raised the range a quarter point, the first hike in three years, on a unanimous vote. |
| Jul 29, 2026 July 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.50%–3.75% In line | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | -1.5% Held on a 9–3 vote, with three members favoring a hike; the S&P 500 fell 1.5%. |
| Jun 17, 2026 June 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.50%–3.75% In line | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | -1.2% Held unanimously at Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting; projections pointed to a possible hike later in the year. |
| Apr 29, 2026 April 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.50%–3.75% In line | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | 0.0% Held on an 8–4 vote, the most dissents since 1992, three of them objecting to the statement's easing bias. |
| Mar 18, 2026 March 2026 | Fed funds target | 3.50%–3.75% In line | 3.50%–3.75% | 3.50%–3.75% | -1.4% Held on an 11–1 vote, with Governor Miran favoring a cut; the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. |
What it is
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate. It meets eight times a year and releases its statement at 2:00 PM ET on the second day of each meeting. The Chair's press conference starts at 2:30.
Most decisions are priced in by the futures market before the day. Stocks move on the surprise, which usually sits in the statement wording, the dot plot at quarterly meetings, or the press conference.
Four of the eight meetings come with a Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot of where each official expects rates to go.
What traders watch first
- The decision against what futures had priced the day before
- Changes in the statement's wording from the last meeting
- The dot plot and projections, at the quarterly meetings
- Any dissents, and the tone of the press conference
From the Desk
- OCT 28Crude climbs on a reported US military warning as Fed day arrivesCrude is up about 1.5% premarket after a report that the US told Gulf allies to expect a short military campaign, while Vertiv’s 14.9% jump lifts the Nasdaq proxy about 0.4%. The Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.
- OCT 27Chips jump 3% while Boeing's plunge holds the Dow flat before the FedThe chip ETF rose about 3% and the Nasdaq proxy 1.27% on the eve of Fed day, while Boeing's 10.7% drop kept the Dow proxy flat, to a Choppy close. Money went to chips, Tesla and gold, while energy fell as crude slipped under $100.
- OCT 27Attack near a Saudi oil hub lifts crude as the Fed meeting beginsCrude is up about 0.9% premarket after Saudi Arabia contained a fire near its Ras Tanura export hub, while the S&P proxy is about 0.1% lower. Durable goods land at 8:30 AM ET and consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET as the Fed starts its two-day meeting.
- OCT 25Wednesday decides whether big tech can outrun the Fed and $100 oilLast week closed Choppy after a Rattled Thursday, and oil won it, with crude up about 4.8% while the Nasdaq proxy slipped. This week asks whether big tech can outrun the Fed and $100 oil, and Wednesday answers with the Fed at 2 PM ET and Microsoft and Alphabet after the close.
- OCT 7Minutes lean hawkish, small caps take the hit: S&P proxy −0.2% in a calm closeThe September FOMC minutes showed most officials expect another hike by year-end, and long yields pressed multi-decade highs. Large caps barely moved and the vol proxy rose less than 1%, so the close scored Calm, but small caps fell 1.3% and Bitcoin slid 2.3%.
- OCT 7Minutes day: futures slip off records as yields and oil lean on the openThe September FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET are Wednesday's main event, with consumer credit at 3:00. Tuesday closed Grinding at records, but premarket proxies are softer, led by the Nasdaq and long Treasuries, with the vol proxy bid and crude firmer.
More on the calendar
Release times are Eastern. Forecasts and priors for release week come from the Unusual Whales economic calendar; results come from Federal Reserve. Market moves are close to close. Not investment advice.