The jobs report: nonfarm payrolls
When the next jobs report comes out, what the street expects for payrolls and unemployment, and how stocks took the last six.
| READING | FORECAST | PRIOR |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Hourly Earnings Y/Y | — | 3.0% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings M/M | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Employment Report | 55.0K | 29.0K |
On this week's calendar. See the full week
After that: Fri, Dec 4 · Fri, Jan 8 · Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule
MRKTS PROWatch dealer gamma and the walls on SPY, QQQ and IWM through the release, live.See mrkts Pro →How stocks took the last six
S&P 500, close to close, on each release day.
- Oct 2, 26+0.7%
- Sep 4, 26-0.4%
- Aug 7, 26+0.6%
- Jul 2, 260.0%
- Jun 5, 26-2.6%
- May 8, 26+0.8%
Past releases
Published figures, newest first.
| RELEASED | READING | ACTUAL | EST | PRIOR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 September 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | +29K Below est 4.2% +0.1% | +84K 4.1% +0.3% | +162K 4.1% +0.3% | +0.7% Payrolls and wages both came in well short of forecasts and August was revised down; stocks rose as hike odds for October fell. |
| Sep 4, 2026 August 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | +162K Above est 4.1% +0.3% | +53K 4.1% +0.3% | -23K 4.1% +0.1% | -0.4% Payrolls tripled the forecast and July was revised to a gain; traders added to bets on a September hike and the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. |
| Aug 7, 2026 July 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | -23K Below est 4.1% +0.1% | +83K — — | +57K 4.2% +0.3% | +0.6% An unexpected job loss with flat pay; yields fell, hike odds dropped and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.2%. |
| Jul 2, 2026 June 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | +57K Below est 4.2% +0.3% | +115K — +0.3% | +172K 4.3% +0.3% | 0.0% Payrolls missed by half and May was revised down 43K; the unemployment rate fell mostly because fewer people were in the labor force. |
| Jun 5, 2026 May 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | +172K Above est 4.3% +0.3% | +80K 4.3% +0.3% | +115K 4.3% +0.2% | -2.6% Payrolls doubled the forecast with upward revisions; yields jumped 8bp and the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.8%. |
| May 8, 2026 April 2026 | Payrolls Unemployment rate Avg hourly earnings M/M | +115K Above est 4.3% +0.2% | +55K — +0.3% | +178K 4.3% +0.2% | +0.8% Payrolls beat a low forecast while wages came in a tenth soft; yields dipped and the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.3%. |
What it is
The Employment Situation report counts jobs added outside farms, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually publishes it on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 AM ET.
A big payrolls beat can be bad news for stocks when inflation is the worry, because it argues against rate cuts. When growth is the worry, a weak number does more damage. Which way it cuts depends on what the market fears that month.
The first payrolls figure is revised twice. Revisions to the prior two months often move markets as much as the headline.
What traders watch first
- Payrolls against the forecast, plus revisions to the prior two months
- The unemployment rate, which the Fed watches closely
- Average hourly earnings month over month, a read on wage inflation
- The 2-year Treasury yield and rate-cut odds right after 8:30
From the Desk
- NOV 2Oil sheds 6% on Iran talks even though Doha ended without a dealIran's delegation left three days of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha without a breakthrough, but Tehran says contacts to end the US-Iran war continue. Crude is down about 6.2% and Brent-linked oil about 6.7%, while airline stocks are up about 5.3%.
- OCT 31Friday's gap is the line: the S&P closes under 7,637 after Intel's crashThe S&P 500 closed the week at 7,580, below the gap Friday left between 7,637 and 7,691, and the Nasdaq 100 fell under its 50-day average. Next week's chip earnings and the jobs report are the first tests of that gap.
- OCT 2Soft jobs chatter, grinding close: S&P proxy +0.7% as vol easesFriday's employment package set the tone. Calendar actuals were still blank at publish — street read a soft payroll miss — and equities finished Grinding with the vol proxy lower.
- OCT 1Friday jobs: NFP, jobless rate, and AHE on the 8:30 slateSeptember employment prints land at 8:30 ET with payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings — the first hard labor checkpoint of Q4 after Thursday's soft-green close.
- OCT 1Claims and ISM on the calendar; ACN reaction leads; NKE reports after the closeQ4 opened with labor and manufacturing data on the slate, Accenture’s post-report move leading the session, and Nike printing after the bell ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
More on the calendar
Release times are Eastern. Forecasts and priors for release week come from the Unusual Whales economic calendar; results come from Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market moves are close to close. Not investment advice.