CPI: the Consumer Price Index
When the next CPI report comes out, what the street expects, and how stocks took the last six inflation prints.
The forecast and prior post here the week of the release.
After that: Thu, Dec 10 · Wed, Jan 13 · Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule
MRKTS PROWatch dealer gamma and the walls on SPY, QQQ and IWM through the release, live.See mrkts Pro →How stocks took the last six
S&P 500, close to close, on each release day.
- Oct 14, 26-1.1%
- Sep 11, 26+0.9%
- Aug 12, 26+0.3%
- Jul 14, 26+0.4%
- Jun 10, 26-1.6%
- May 12, 26-0.2%
Past releases
Published figures, newest first.
| RELEASED | READING | ACTUAL | EST | PRIOR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 September 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | +0.3% Above est +3.7% +2.6% | +0.2% +3.6% +2.5% | +0.3% +3.4% +2.4% | -1.1% Core and headline both ran a tenth above forecast; the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 2.0%. |
| Sep 11, 2026 August 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | +0.3% Above est +3.4% +2.4% | +0.2% +3.4% +2.4% | +0.2% +3.4% +2.5% | +0.9% Core month over month was a tenth hot while the annual rates matched forecasts; stocks rose about 0.9%. |
| Aug 12, 2026 July 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | +0.2% In line +3.4% +2.5% | +0.2% +3.4% +2.5% | 0.0% +3.5% +2.6% | +0.3% Every reading matched the forecast; stocks edged higher and the 10-year slipped. |
| Jul 14, 2026 June 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | 0.0% Below est +3.5% +2.6% | +0.2% +3.8% +2.9% | +0.2% +4.2% +2.9% | +0.4% A broad downside miss, with flat core prices and headline inflation down from 4.2%; the 10-year fell 4bp and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1%. |
| Jun 10, 2026 May 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | +0.2% Below est +4.2% +2.9% | +0.3% +4.2% +2.9% | +0.4% +3.8% +2.8% | -1.6% Headline inflation reached 4.2% as expected while core came in a tenth soft; stocks still fell, the Nasdaq 100 by 2.0%. |
| May 12, 2026 April 2026 | Core M/M Headline Y/Y Core Y/Y | +0.4% Above est +3.8% +2.8% | +0.3% +3.7% +2.7% | +0.2% +3.3% +2.6% | -0.2% Every reading ran a tenth above forecast; the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9% and the 10-year rose 4bp. |
What it is
CPI tracks what urban consumers pay for a fixed basket of goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it monthly at 8:30 AM ET, about two weeks after the month ends.
Markets trade the gap between the print and the forecast. A hotter number pushes rate-cut odds out and Treasury yields up, which tends to weigh on growth stocks. A cooler one does the opposite.
Core CPI leaves out food and energy, which swing with weather and oil. The Fed and most traders treat core month-over-month as the number that matters.
What traders watch first
- Core CPI month over month, against the forecast to a tenth of a point
- Shelter, the biggest piece of core and the slowest to turn
- Core services excluding housing, the measure the Fed calls supercore
- How the 2-year Treasury yield and rate-cut odds move in the first 30 minutes
From the Desk
- OCT 14CPI at 8:30 decides it as BlackRock jumps and BofA slipsThe S&P proxy is about +0.2% premarket with vol softer and the Dow proxy leading. September CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET. Bank of America is −1.4% after a $1.2B federal penalty, and BlackRock is +3.5% on a street-reported beat.
- OCT 13Banks report, stocks shrug: a Calm close before CPIThe first big bank reports moved single names, not the index. Citi and Johnson & Johnson fell more than 5% and chip-equipment names slid, while refiners and Oracle rallied. The S&P proxy finished −0.01% with vol flat, so the close scored Calm. CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET.
- OCT 13Chips slide again as bank earnings open the seasonAsia’s memory-chip selloff is leaning on the Nasdaq proxy (about −0.5% premarket) while the Dow and small-cap proxies trade higher and crude gives back Monday’s gain. JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells and Citi report before the open; CPI is tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.
- OCT 12Chips crack, Dow climbs: a Calm close on Columbus DayMemory and chip stocks sold off again while oil, energy and Meta carried the rest of the board. The S&P proxy finished −0.06% with vol down about 1.7%, so the close scored Calm. There were no U.S. prints or earnings today; banks report Tuesday morning and CPI lands Wednesday.
- OCT 12Empty Monday into banks and CPI: oil firmer, equities flatU.S. eco and earnings calendars are blank today while equities trade and the bond market sits out Columbus Day. Premarket the S&P proxy is about +0.1% with crude about +1.2%; Tuesday opens bank earnings and Wednesday brings September CPI.
- OCT 9S&P proxy +0.6% shrugs soft UMich: Grinding green into the weekendEquities finished higher across the board after a soft University of Michigan print and a Delta fuel-cost cut that street accounts flagged. The S&P proxy closed +0.59% with vol down about 1.6%, so the close scored Grinding. Calendar actuals for UMich and Delta EPS are still blank at publish.
More on the calendar
Release times are Eastern. Forecasts and priors for release week come from the Unusual Whales economic calendar; results come from Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market moves are close to close. Not investment advice.