Euphoric Wednesday dies in a Bleeding chip wipeout

This was a week that flipped twice. It opened with two Choppy closes, then turned Euphoric on Wednesday as the Dow proxy jumped about 3.1% on a Democratic sweep read as gridlock, and then Bleeding on Thursday when the chip ETF fell about 11.6% and the S&P proxy about 4.4%. Friday closed Choppy: hot October payrolls and a partial chip bounce, with the equal-weight S&P still down. For the week the S&P proxy fell about 2.7%, the Nasdaq proxy about 5.0%, the equal-weight S&P about 1.1% and the chip ETF about 11.3%.

The week in moods

Wednesday was the best day and the shortest-lived. The Dow proxy rose about 3.1%, the S&P proxy about 1.6% and the equal-weight S&P about 1.9% as vol hedges came off and crude sank about 8% on Iran deal hopes. Thursday was the wildest. The chip ETF lost about 11.6%, AMD about 17.7%, the Nasdaq proxy about 6.4% and the vol proxy jumped about 30.7%, wiping out Wednesday's election rally in a single session. Monday and Tuesday stayed Choppy, with chips down then bouncing and the average stock leading Monday. Friday only repaired part of it: the chip ETF rose about 3.6% and AMD about 11.0%, but the equal-weight S&P fell about 0.4% and the Dow proxy about 0.4%.

Best and worst trades

Among the week's headline names, AppLovin was the best, up about 71% from last Friday after it beat estimates Wednesday and raised its fourth-quarter revenue guide, then added about 31% on Thursday alone. Airbnb rose about 15.6% for the week after a Thursday beat, and Amazon about 7.9%. The worst was Marvell, down about 28.1% as chips sold off. Axon fell about 26.8% after missing estimates Thursday, Micron about 22.1%, Atlassian about 19.8% despite an earnings beat, and Arm about 15.2%. AMD finished the week down about 11.1% even after Friday's 11.0% bounce.

The story that won the week

Oil's Middle East run finished playing out. Crude plunged about 7% Monday and about 8% Wednesday on Iran deal and war-end hopes, and by Friday the story was still played-out. The Average Stock Catching Up held a relative win even as it cooled Friday: the equal-weight S&P fell about 1.1% for the week while the S&P proxy fell about 2.7%, a gap of about 1.6 points, and it led on Monday and Wednesday. The AI Spending Boom cooled for the week. The chip ETF rose into Tuesday, then fell about 2.7% Wednesday on an up day and about 11.6% Thursday, finishing down about 11.3% despite Friday's rebound. Posts say tighter AI-rules fears after the Democratic sweep mixed with hangover selling in Qualcomm and Arm.

Next week's mood

Monday's first catalyst is Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at 10:00 AM ET, with KKR and Constellation Energy reporting before the open (implied moves about 5.0% and 5.9%). Tuesday brings October CPI at 8:30 AM ET. Hot October payrolls (+165,000 against a 55,000 calendar forecast) already put December hike talk back on the table, and Friday's bounce stayed narrow. The desk expects a Choppy Monday: chips need breadth to confirm, and the vol proxy is still up about 14% for the week. A firm chip bid with the equal-weight S&P turning up would pull it toward Grinding; a hawkish Goolsbee with chips giving the bounce back would push it to Rattled.