- The market is shrugging off Nvidia: the S&P proxy is up about 0.7% and small caps about 1.5% premarket, while the vol proxy is down about 6.3%.
- Nvidia is down about 4.9% after its board opened a probe tied to CEO Jensen Huang, but AMD is up about 3.4% and the chip ETF is about flat.
- Goolsbee speaks at 10:00 AM ET today, Occidental, Take-Two and Rocket Lab report after the close, and October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.
Key numbers
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Monday, November 9 opens with the biggest company in the market under a cloud and the rest of the market ignoring it. Nvidia's board has opened an independent investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort after he admitted an affair, which several major news outlets have reported. The first scheduled event is Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at 10:00 AM ET.
Setup into the open
Friday closed Choppy, with the S&P proxy up about 0.3% and the chip ETF about 3.6%. As of about 6:20 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +0.74%, the Nasdaq proxy +0.61%, small caps +1.49% and the Dow proxy +1.08%. Nvidia is −4.88%, AMD +3.42% and Microsoft +1.30%, while the chip ETF is about flat. The vol proxy is −6.33%, long Treasuries +0.22%, crude −3.05% and gold +1.04%. Bitcoin is near $74,600, about −0.1% since midnight.
What to watch
Before the open, Constellation Energy reports with a calendar estimate of $3.90 a share and an implied move of about 5.9%, and KKR with $1.58 and about 5.0%. Wholesale inventories also print at 10:00 AM ET.
After the close, Occidental (estimate $1.43, implied about 4.7%), Take-Two ($0.90, about 7.8%) and Rocket Lab (−$0.02, about 12.4%) report. Tuesday brings October CPI at 8:30 AM ET, with the prior reading at 0.6% month over month and core at 0.3%.
What X is saying
Posts say crypto venues priced the news first, with one account saying a weekend Nvidia contract traded as low as about 4.2% under Friday's close. Wires report hedge funds sold global tech at one of the fastest paces on record last week, and that Gulf markets gained on a signal against renewed strikes on Iran.
Insight
This is a single-stock shock, not a market one. Nvidia is falling while the chip ETF holds flat, AMD rises and small caps lead, so the money is rotating rather than leaving. Falling crude and a calmer vol proxy help too. The test is whether Nvidia's drop stays contained once cash trading starts, with CPI one day away.
Desk stance
The mood stays Choppy because the gains are broad but Nvidia's weight in the indexes can still drag them. It would turn Grinding at the 9:45 AM ET refresh if the S&P proxy holds a gain and the equal-weight S&P keeps pace, and Spooked if Nvidia's slide spreads to the rest of the chips.
- SteadyThe AI spending boomNvidia is down about 4.9% premarket on its CEO probe, but the chip ETF is about flat and AMD is up about 3.4%, so the spending story itself has not cracked.
- HeatingCan the average stock catch up?Small caps are up about 1.5% and the equal-weight S&P about 0.7% premarket while the Nasdaq proxy rises about 0.6%, so the broader market is leading this morning.
- Played outOil's Middle East runCrude is down about 3.1% premarket to about 143.9, further below the 150 line that ended the story.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-11-09: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks 10:00 AM ET; wholesale trade (Sep) 10:00 AM ET, prior 0.5%
- Economic calendar 2026-11-10: CPI (Oct) 8:30 AM ET, prior 0.6% M/M and 3.7% Y/Y; core CPI prior 0.3% M/M and 2.6% Y/Y; NFIB small business optimism 6:00 AM ET, prior 97.9
- Earnings premarket 2026-11-09: CEG (EPS est 3.90, implied ~5.9%), KKR (1.58, ~5.0%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-09: OXY (EPS est 1.43, implied ~4.7%), TTWO (0.90, ~7.8%), RKLB (−0.02, ~12.4%)
- Premarket quotes as of about 6:20 AM ET vs Nov 6 close: SPY 740.70 (+0.74%), QQQ 660.12 (+0.61%), IWM 277.74 (+1.49%), DIA 517.74 (+1.08%), RSP 217.58 (+0.71%, last trade about 4:17 AM ET), SMH 463.96 (+0.00%), TLT 82.10 (+0.22%), VXX 20.56 (−6.33%), USO 143.88 (−3.05%), GLD 376.38 (+1.04%), NVDA 177.54 (−4.88%), AMD 464.40 (+3.42%), MSFT 537.51 (+1.30%); UUP no premarket trade (Fri close 29.13)
- BTC mark about $74,633 at 6:20 AM ET (−0.12% vs ET midnight open 74,722)
- Friday Nov 6 closing mood Choppy and closes (S&P proxy +0.33%, chip ETF +3.57%) from recap-2026-11-06 and data/market/hero.json
- @FT — “Nvidia shares dropped in pre-market trading on Monday after the chipmaker’s board said it would open an investigation into reports that chief executive Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign espionage operation.”
- @WSJ — “Nvidia’s board is probing whether CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign espionage effort after he had an affair with an industry executive suspected of working for Chinese intelligence”
- @Reuters — “Nvidia shares fell sharply after an internal investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort put his future at the AI chipmaker under scrutiny”
- @0x_web3_wagmi — “while US markets were shut, binance's nvidia perp did $360M of volume and traded as low as 4.2% under friday's close”
- @business — “Hedge funds sold global technology stocks at one of the fastest paces on record last week”
- @Reuters — “Gulf stocks gain on Trump's signal against renewed Iran strikes”
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