Chips bounce about 4.8% after their worst day since 2020, with the jobs report at 8:30 AM ET

IN SHORT

The bounce is narrow: the Nasdaq proxy is up about 1.5% and the chip ETF about 4.8% premarket, but small caps are flat and the Dow proxy is down about 0.9%.
Cloudflare is up about 17.6% and Airbnb about 12.1% after strong reports, while Monster Beverage is down about 4.6%.
The October employment report comes at 8:30 AM ET (prior 29,000, forecast 55,000), then consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM ET.

SPY PRE

+0.33%

6:20 AM ET vs Thu close

QQQ PRE

+1.46%

6:20 AM ET · tech bounces

DIA PRE

−0.88%

6:20 AM ET · Dow lags

SMH PRE

+4.81%

6:20 AM ET · after −11.6%

VXX PRE

−2.03%

6:20 AM ET · vol eases

NET PRE

+17.58%

6:20 AM ET · implied about 11.8%

ABNB PRE

+12.07%

6:20 AM ET · implied about 6.0%

JOBS REPORT

8:30 AM

Prior 29K · forecast 55K

Friday, November 6 opens with a bounce in the stocks that fell hardest on Thursday. The October employment report is the first release, at 8:30 AM ET, after a session that erased the post-election rally.

Setup into the open

Thursday closed Bleeding, with the S&P proxy down about 4.4%, the Nasdaq proxy about 6.4% and the chip ETF about 11.6%. As of about 6:20 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +0.33%, the Nasdaq proxy +1.46% and the chip ETF +4.81%. Small caps are −0.02% and the Dow proxy −0.88%. Nvidia is +4.27% and Micron +7.73%. The vol proxy is −2.03%, long Treasuries −0.20%, crude +0.39% and gold −0.82%. Bitcoin is near $75,900, about +0.3% since midnight.

What to watch

Cloudflare had a calendar estimate of $0.35 a share and is up about 17.6% against an implied move of about 11.8%; posts say it earned $0.38. Airbnb had an estimate of $2.86 and is up about 12.1% against about 6.0% implied; posts say it earned $3.16. Monster Beverage is down about 4.6%.

Today the calendar shows the employment report at 8:30 AM ET with unemployment forecast at 4.2%, consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM ET (prior 46.3, forecast 47.2) and Fed governor Bowman speaking at 12:15 PM ET. Before the open Moderna (estimate −$1.10, implied about 7.2%), Humana (−$1.03, about 5.1%) and Vistra ($2.91, about 5.9%) report.

What X is saying

Posts say Thursday was the worst day for chips since 2020 and that traders are pricing a slower AI build-out, with one account citing Microsoft stepping back from neocloud leases. Another post blames fears that a new Congress could review AI rules. Both explanations are unconfirmed.

Insight

This looks like a rebound inside a larger shakeout, not a change of direction. The chip ETF is recovering less than half of Thursday's drop, and the Dow proxy and equal-weight S&P are flat to lower, so the bounce is concentrated in the names that were sold hardest. A jobs number far from 55,000 could change how rates are priced, and that would hit the same stocks.

Desk stance

The mood stays Bleeding because the prior close was Bleeding and the bounce is unproven. It would ease at the next refresh if the S&P proxy holds a gain after the 8:30 AM ET release and the chip ETF keeps most of its premarket move.

NARRATIVE WATCH

CoolingThe AI spending boomThe chip ETF is up about 4.8% premarket after falling about 11.6% on Thursday, which recovers less than half the drop, so the story stays cooling.
SteadyThe average stock catching upThe equal-weight S&P is down about 0.1% premarket while the Nasdaq proxy rises about 1.5%, so the big names are leading the bounce and the story takes a pause.

SCENARIOS

Choppy

If jobs come in near 55,000 and the chip bounce holds after the open…

The tape steadies as buyers return to tech, but the index stays below Wednesday's highs.

Spooked

If payrolls and wages come in hot…

Rate worries return and the chip bounce fades as long Treasuries slip.

Grinding

If payrolls are weak but steady unemployment calms rate fears…

Long Treasuries firm and megacaps lead a slow recovery while the Dow proxy lags.

Bleeding

If the chip ETF gives back its entire premarket gain…

Thursday's selling resumes and the vol proxy turns higher again.

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SOURCES ›

Economic calendar 2026-11-06: employment report (Oct) 8:30 AM ET, prior 29,000, forecast 55,000; unemployment rate prior 4.2%, forecast 4.2%; average hourly earnings M/M prior 0.1%, forecast 0.3%; U. Michigan prelim consumer sentiment (Nov) 10:00 AM ET, prior 46.3, forecast 47.2; Fed governor Bowman speaks 12:15 PM ET
Earnings premarket 2026-11-06: MRNA (EPS est −1.10, implied ~7.2%), HUM (−1.03, ~5.1%), VST (2.91, ~5.9%)
Earnings afterhours 2026-11-05, as read this morning: NET (EPS est 0.35, implied ~11.8%), ABNB (2.86, ~6.0%), MNST (0.30, implied ~6.7%)
Premarket quotes as of about 6:20 AM ET vs Nov 5 close: SPY 735.40 (+0.33%), QQQ 656.52 (+1.46%), IWM 270.92 (−0.02%), DIA 509.74 (−0.88%), RSP 216.63 (−0.11%), SMH 469.27 (+4.81%), TLT 81.77 (−0.20%), VXX 21.75 (−2.03%), UUP 28.91 (−0.03%), USO 148.79 (+0.39%), GLD 372.42 (−0.82%), NVDA 189.35 (+4.27%), AMD 433.13 (+7.10%), MU 707.10 (+7.73%), NET 287.50 (+17.58%), ABNB 190.66 (+12.07%), MNST 45.61 (−4.64%)
BTC mark about $75,906 at 6:19 AM ET (+0.32% vs ET midnight open 75,662)
Thursday Nov 5 closing mood Bleeding and closes (S&P proxy −4.38%, Nasdaq proxy −6.38%, chip ETF −11.57%) from recap-2026-11-05 and data/market/hero.json
@dolphinR123 — “Chips had their worst day since 2020: SOX -12.2%, Nasdaq 100 -6.4%, VIX +69.7%. Microsoft walked away from neocloud leases. Our read: AI hardware is being sold on a slower 2028 build-out, whatever the fundamentals say.”
@tyrovirtuoso — “Global carnage in tech, AI and semi conductor stocks due to Republicans loss in midterms and potential likely review by Democrats on”
@HanZywiec — “Cloudflare ($NET) just reported earnings: EPS of $0.38 beat estimates of $0.34, and revenue of $782.5M topped the $738.5M consensus.”
@BreakingPocket — “Cloudflare jumps after hours — revenue up 39%, and the outlook went up with it”
@TopStockAlerts1 — “Diluted EPS reached $3.16 versus the $2.85 consensus, while revenue increased 19% year over year to $4.87B, exceeding estimates of $4.75B.”