Apple and Palantir slide after beats as chips bounce into AMD on election day

IN SHORT

Premarket vs Monday's close: S&P proxy −0.15%, Nasdaq +0.27%, small caps −0.04%, Dow −0.63%, long Treasuries −0.34%, vol +0.57%, crude +2.77%. The chip ETF is +1.64% and gold −1.05%.
The story is the beats that got sold: Apple is −3.98% and Palantir −7.31% premarket after both topped estimates, while AMD is +2.29% before its own report tonight.
Today: JOLTS (forecast 7.1 million, prior 7.1 million) and factory orders (forecast 1.5%, prior 0.1%) at 10:00 AM ET. Shopify, Pfizer and Eaton report before the open; AMD, Amgen, Arista and Booking after the close.

SPY PRE

−0.15%

6:22 AM ET vs Mon close

QQQ PRE

+0.27%

6:22 AM ET · chips offset Apple

AAPL PRE

−3.98%

6:22 AM ET · beat, still sold

PLTR PRE

−7.31%

6:22 AM ET · beat and raise

SMH PRE

+1.64%

6:22 AM ET · AMD +2.29% before its print

USO PRE

+2.77%

6:22 AM ET · after a −7.04% Monday

JOLTS

10:00 AM

Prior 7.1M · forecast 7.1M

AMD

After close

EPS est $1.94 · implied about 7.7%

Tuesday, November 3 is midterm election day, and stocks are open as usual. The first release is JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET. The big story is two earnings beats that got sold: Apple is down about 4.0% premarket and Palantir about 7.3%, even though both topped estimates last night.

Setup into the open

Monday closed Choppy: the S&P proxy fell about 0.5% and the Nasdaq proxy about 1.4% as chipmakers sold off, while the equal-weight S&P rose about 0.8%. As of about 6:20 AM ET, the S&P proxy is −0.15%, the Nasdaq proxy +0.27%, small caps about flat and the Dow proxy −0.63%. The chip ETF is +1.64%. Crude is +2.77% after Monday's 7% drop, gold −1.05%, long Treasuries −0.34% and the vol proxy +0.57%. Bitcoin is near $77,000, about +0.3% since midnight.

What to watch

Apple earned $2.10 a share against the calendar's $1.98 on about $114.5 billion in revenue, but Greater China, iPad and wearables came in light; options had priced about 3.9%. Palantir earned $0.44 against $0.41 and raised its full-year revenue outlook; options had priced about 11.0%.

Before the open, Shopify ($0.45 est, implied about 12.7%), Pfizer ($0.72, about 3.9%), Eaton ($3.54, about 5.9%) and Marathon Petroleum report. After the close come AMD ($1.94, about 7.7%), Amgen ($5.74, about 3.9%), Arista ($1.08, about 8.5%), Booking ($4.48, about 6.2%) and Super Micro ($1.24, about 11.8%).

What X is saying

Posts say Apple's iPhone growth is slowing and product margins slipped, and accounts report JPMorgan trimmed its Apple target to $355. On Palantir, posts point to shorter contract terms and international commercial revenue up just 1% from last quarter. On oil, accounts report a senior Iranian official said Tehran is far from a deal, and Iranian state TV reports three tankers caught fire near Hormuz. These are unconfirmed.

Insight

This is a market that has stopped paying for good news in big tech. Apple and Palantir both beat, and both are lower. The chip bounce is the counterweight, and it rides into AMD tonight, the first big chip report since last week's Intel crash.

Desk stance

Publish mood is Choppy, Monday's closing read, and the board fits it: the Nasdaq proxy is up while the Dow proxy is down about 0.6%. A broad drop with the S&P proxy below −1% would point to Rattled at the 9:45 refresh. Chips holding their gains while Apple stabilizes would lean Grinding.

NARRATIVE WATCH

SteadyThe AI spending boomThe chip ETF is up about 1.6% premarket after Monday's 2.8% drop, but Palantir is down about 7.3% after a beat and raise.
SteadyOil keeps climbingCrude is up about 2.8% premarket after Monday's 7% slide, as a senior Iranian official says Tehran is far from a deal and state TV reports tanker fires near Hormuz.

SCENARIOS

Grinding

Chips hold their gains and Apple steadies after the open

Tech's two halves balance out and the index drifts into AMD's report.

Rattled

Apple and Palantir keep falling and drag the Nasdaq proxy negative

Selling spreads from chips to the biggest names and the vol proxy rebuilds.

Choppy

JOLTS lands near 7.1 million and crude stays near Monday's levels

Money keeps rotating under a flat index while traders wait on the vote.

Spooked

Crude jumps on new Hormuz headlines and long Treasuries slide

The oil relief reverses and inflation worry hits the whole board.

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SOURCES ›

Economic calendar 2026-11-03: JOLTS (Sep) 10:00 AM ET, prior 7.1 million, forecast 7.1 million; factory orders (Sep) 10:00 AM ET, prior 0.1%, forecast 1.5%
Earnings premarket 2026-11-03: SHOP (EPS est 0.45, implied ~12.7%), PFE (0.72, ~3.9%), ETN (3.54, ~5.9%), MPC (25.74, ~9.2%)
Earnings afterhours 2026-11-03: AMD (1.94, ~7.7%), AMGN (5.74, ~3.9%), ANET (1.08, ~8.5%), BKNG (4.48, ~6.2%), SMCI (1.24, ~11.8%)
Earnings afterhours 2026-11-02: AAPL (EPS est 1.98, implied ~3.9%), PLTR (0.41, ~11.0%)
Quotes as of 6:06–6:22 AM ET vs Nov 2 close: SPY 751.00 (−0.15%), QQQ 682.92 (+0.27%), IWM 279.03 (−0.04%), DIA 516.06 (−0.63%), TLT 81.45 (−0.34%), VXX 19.37 (+0.57%), USO 161.21 (+2.77%), GLD 357.86 (−1.05%), SMH 516.66 (+1.64%), AMD 477.53 (+2.29%), AAPL 324.84 (−3.98%), PLTR 165.31 (−7.31%); UUP 29.01 (+0.17%) last traded Nov 2 4:54 PM ET, no Tuesday trade yet
BTC mark ~$77,027 at 6:22 AM ET (+0.27% vs ET midnight open 76,822)
Monday Nov 2 closing mood Choppy and closes (SPY −0.48%, QQQ −1.36%, RSP +0.76%, SMH −2.76%, USO −7.04%) from recap-2026-11-02 and data/market/hero.json
@DeItaone — “*APPLE 4Q EPS $2.10, EST. $2.00 *APPLE 4Q REV. $114.48B, EST. $113.47B”
@FirstSquawk — “IPAD REVENUE $6.23 BLN, WEARABLES, HOME & ACCESSORIES REVENUE $8.30 BLN AND GREATER CHINA REVENUE $17.54 BLN CAME IN BELOW ESTIMATES”
@zerohedge — “Strong iPhone sales (although growth slowing), offset by misses in Ipad and Wearables Product gross margin sliding to 1 year low”
@FirstSquawk — “JPMorgan Lowers Apple Price Target To $355 From $360”
@FirstSquawk — “PALANTIR Q3 2026 REVENUE $2.31 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $2.17 BLN, WITH ADJUSTED EPS 44 CENTS, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF 41 CENTS”
@FirstSquawk — “RAISES ITS FY REVENUE VIEW TO $8.53 BLN”
@wallstengine — “We signed multiple 8-figure deals in the qtr that were "shorter in duration than usual"”
@wallstengine — “Palantir $PLTR's international commercial revenue reached $184M in Q3, up 21% YoY but just 1% QoQ”
@wallstengine — “Iran 🇮🇷 remains “far from a deal” with the U.S.”
@FirstSquawk — “IRAN REPORTS THAT THREE OIL TANKERS CAUGHT FIRE IN THE HORMUZ STRAIT ON TUESDAY, ACCORDING TO IRIB.”