- The split from Wednesday is getting wider: the Dow proxy and small caps are up about 0.7% premarket, while the Nasdaq proxy is down about 0.6%.
- Chip stocks are falling again after Qualcomm warned its handset business will shrink as Apple's orders wind down, even though its data center sales are starting to ramp.
- AppLovin is up about 17% after a beat and a higher outlook. Jobless claims come at 8:30 AM ET, and Friday's jobs report is the next big test.
Key numbers
Thursday, November 5 opens with the chipmakers under pressure again. Qualcomm beat on sales but said handset revenue will slip as Apple's orders ramp down, and Arm is lower even after beating estimates. The first release is weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET.
Setup into the open
Wednesday closed Euphoric, with the Dow proxy up about 3.1% and the S&P proxy about 1.6%, while the chip ETF fell about 2.7%. As of about 6:20 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +0.14%, the Nasdaq proxy −0.57%, small caps +0.68% and the Dow proxy +0.65%. The chip ETF is −2.28% and Micron −2.80%. Gold is +1.73%, long Treasuries +0.24%, crude +0.06% and the vol proxy +0.53%. Bitcoin is near $80,300, about flat since midnight.
What to watch
Qualcomm earned $2.17 a share against $2.16 on the calendar and is down about 9.2%; options had priced about 7.6%. Arm earned $0.52 against $0.48 and is down about 4.3%, inside its implied 9.6%. AppLovin earned $4.30 against $3.94, guided above estimates and is up about 17%, past its implied 15.1%.
Before the open, ConocoPhillips ($3.06 est, implied about 2.7%), Sony ($0.38, about 4.7%), Parker Hannifin ($8.23, about 6.7%) and Cigna ($7.46, about 4.2%) report. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks at 8:50 AM ET. After the close come Cloudflare ($0.35, about 11.8%), Airbnb ($2.86, about 6.0%), Atlassian ($1.39, about 11.8%) and Axon ($1.90, about 10.4%).
What X is saying
Accounts report Qualcomm expects more than $650 million of data center revenue this quarter, and that its finance chief said December will not be its strongest quarter as Apple revenue ramps down. Posts say Micron paused a planned $4.5 billion plant in Taiwan over a labor dispute, and that a tanker hit a mine near the Strait of Hormuz. These are unconfirmed.
Insight
This looks like the rotation from Wednesday carrying into a second session rather than a broad selloff. Money is leaving the chip trade on mixed reports and moving into the average stock. Crude barely reacted to the tanker report. If chips find buyers after the open, the Nasdaq proxy can close the gap.
Desk stance
Publish mood is Euphoric, Wednesday's closing read, but the board is calmer than that. If small caps hold their gain while chips stay heavy at 9:45 AM ET, the refresh would lean Choppy. A broad slide below Wednesday's close would point to Spooked.
- CoolingThe AI spending boomThe chip ETF is down about 2.3% premarket after a 2.7% drop Wednesday, as Qualcomm falls about 9.2% and Arm about 4.3% after their reports.
- HeatingThe average stock catching upSmall caps are up about 0.7% and the Dow proxy about 0.7% premarket while the Nasdaq proxy is down about 0.6%, extending Wednesday's gap.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-11-05: weekly jobless claims 8:30 AM ET, prior 194,000, forecast 198,000; Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks 8:50 AM ET
- Economic calendar 2026-11-06: employment report (Oct) 8:30 AM ET, prior 29,000, forecast 55,000
- Earnings premarket 2026-11-05: COP (EPS est 3.06, implied ~2.7%), SONY (0.38, ~4.7%), PH (8.23, ~6.7%), CI (7.46, ~4.2%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-05: NET (0.35, ~11.8%), ABNB (2.86, ~6.0%), TEAM (1.39, ~11.8%), AXON (1.90, ~10.4%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-04, as read the morning of Nov 4: QCOM (EPS est 2.16, implied ~7.6%), ARM (0.48, ~9.6%), APP (3.94, ~15.1%)
- Premarket quotes as of 6:19–6:20 AM ET vs Nov 4 close: SPY 767.90 (+0.14%), QQQ 688.04 (−0.57%), IWM 285.95 (+0.68%), DIA 536.55 (+0.65%), TLT 81.96 (+0.24%), VXX 17.15 (+0.53%), USO 145.49 (+0.06%), GLD 378.93 (+1.73%), SMH 492.77 (−2.28%), MU 773.00 (−2.80%), QCOM 157.30 (−9.17%), ARM 183.60 (−4.28%), APP 317.94 (+17.00%)
- BTC mark about $80,311 at 6:20 AM ET (−0.17% vs ET midnight open 80,448)
- Wednesday Nov 4 closing mood Euphoric and closes (SPY +1.64%, DIA +3.08%, SMH −2.71%) from recap-2026-11-04 and data/market/hero.json
- @FirstSquawk — “QUALCOMM Q4 ADJUSTED EPS $2.17, ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH ESTIMATE OF $2.16, WITH ADJUSTED REVENUE $10.44 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $10.12 BLN”
- @FirstSquawk — “QUALCOMM CFO SAYS Q1'27 GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE COMMENCEMENT OF SHIPMENTS TO TWO HYPERSCALER CUSTOMERS FOR CUSTOM SILICON ENGAGEMENTS, AND FORECASTS QCT HANDSET REVENUES TO DECLINE BY A MID-SINGLE-DIGIT PERCENTAGE SEQUENTIALLY IN Q1'27”
- @wallstengine — “Qualcomm $QCOM CFO says that with Apple revenue ramping down, December will not be its strongest quarter this year.”
- @wallstengine — “$QCOM expects data center revenue of more than $650 million in Q1, rising every quarter to exit fiscal 2027 at a $7 billion annualized run-rate.”
- @FirstSquawk — “ARM HOLDINGS Q2 ADJUSTED EPS $0.52, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $0.47, WITH REVENUE $1.44 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $1.38 BLN, AND ADJUSTED OPERATING INCOME $638 MLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $575.7 MLN”
- @wallstengine — “EPS: $4.30 (Est. $4.04) 🟢; +76% YoY”
- @FirstSquawk — “MICRON HALTS WORK ON $4.5 BILLION CHIP PLANT IN TAIWAN DUE TO LABOR DISPUTE.”
- @FirstSquawk — “IRAN NAVY CLAIMS TANKER HIT MINE IN HORMUZ THURS. MORNING- IRNA”
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