- Stocks reversed an overnight slide and now trade higher across the board, with the Dow proxy and small caps up about 1.4% and the vol proxy down about 4.6%.
- Democrats are projected to control both chambers of Congress, and gold is up about 3.1% as the dollar and yields slip on the result.
- AMD is up about 6.3% and Arista about 12.4% after beats, and ADP payrolls at 8:15 AM ET and ISM services at 10:00 AM ET come before Arm and Qualcomm report tonight.
Key numbers
Wednesday, November 4 opens on the midterm result. Election desks project Democrats will control both the House and the Senate, and the market's first reaction has already flipped: futures slid overnight, with posts citing Nasdaq futures down more than 2%, then erased the losses before dawn. The first release is ADP payrolls at 8:15 AM ET.
Setup into the open
Tuesday closed Choppy, with the S&P proxy up about 0.3% and the Dow proxy down about 0.4%. As of about 6:15 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +1.04%, the Nasdaq proxy +1.00%, small caps +1.37% and the Dow proxy +1.44%. The chip ETF is +1.57%. Gold is +3.08%, long Treasuries +0.36%, crude −1.12% and the vol proxy −4.56%. Bitcoin is near $78,500, about +1.6% since midnight.
What to watch
AMD earned $2.09 a share against $1.94 on the calendar and guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion; options had priced about 6.5%. Arista earned $1.20 against $1.08 and guided above estimates; options had priced about 7.9%, and it is moving well past that.
Before the open, McDonald's ($3.36 est, implied about 3.0%), Uber ($0.94, about 6.3%), Novo Nordisk ($0.81, about 5.0%), CVS ($1.62, about 5.7%) and Datadog ($0.64, about 12.4%) report. The trade balance lands at 8:30 AM ET and services PMI at 9:45 AM ET. After the close come Arm ($0.48, about 9.6%), Qualcomm ($2.16, about 7.6%) and AppLovin ($3.94, about 15.1%).
What X is saying
Accounts report gold rose as the dollar and yields fell on the Democratic win, and posts call the turn in futures a massive post-election reversal. Accounts report the president posted a hat reading VETO, and separately said he would work with Democrats. On oil, accounts report Iran's leader warned further attacks would bring a far wider response. These are unconfirmed.
Insight
The overnight selling came as the result firmed up. By morning the trade looks like divided government: gold and bonds up, the dollar softer, and the broad market leading big tech. Strong chip reports add a second engine. A fade after the open would say the overnight fear was the real signal.
Desk stance
Publish mood is Choppy, Tuesday's closing read, but the board leans better than that. If the S&P proxy holds above +1% with small caps leading at 9:45, the refresh would lean Pumping. A slide back below flat would point to Rattled.
- HeatingThe AI spending boomAMD is up about 6.3% and Arista about 12.4% premarket after both beat and raised their outlooks, lifting the chip ETF about 1.6%.
- HeatingThe average stock catching upSmall caps are up about 1.4% and the Dow proxy about 1.4% premarket, ahead of the Nasdaq proxy's 1.0%, after the Democratic sweep.
- SteadyOil's Middle East runCrude is down about 1.1% premarket even as accounts report Iran's leader warned further attacks would bring a far wider response.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-11-04: ADP employment (Oct) 8:15 AM ET, prior 90,000, no forecast; trade balance (Sep) 8:30 AM ET, prior −$105.6 billion, forecast −$107.8 billion; services PMI (Oct) 9:45 AM ET, prior 58.8; ISM services (Oct) 10:00 AM ET, prior 54.9, forecast 54.6
- Earnings premarket 2026-11-04: MCD (EPS est 3.36, implied ~3.0%), UBER (0.94, ~6.3%), NVO (0.81, ~5.0%), CVS (1.62, ~5.7%), DDOG (0.64, ~12.4%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-04: ARM (0.48, ~9.6%), QCOM (2.16, ~7.6%), APP (3.94, ~15.1%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-03: AMD (EPS est 1.94, implied ~6.5%), ANET (1.08, ~7.9%)
- Premarket quotes as of 6:03–6:16 AM ET vs Nov 3 close: SPY 762.20 (+1.04%), QQQ 692.10 (+1.00%), IWM 283.63 (+1.37%), DIA 524.51 (+1.44%), TLT 81.40 (+0.36%), VXX 18.02 (−4.56%), USO 156.40 (−1.12%), GLD 370.34 (+3.08%), SMH 526.65 (+1.57%), AMD 514.49 (+6.32%), ANET 191.05 (+12.44%); UUP no Wednesday trade yet (last 29.00 on Nov 3)
- BTC mark ~$78,544 at 6:16 AM ET (+1.63% vs ET midnight open 77,282)
- Tuesday Nov 3 closing mood Choppy and closes (SPY +0.31%, DIA −0.44%) from recap-2026-11-03 and data/market/hero.json
- @FirstSquawk — “DEMOCRATS PROJECTED TO SWEEP HOUSE, SENATE AND GOVERNOR RACES IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS”
- @wallstengine — “DEMOCRATS WIN THE U.S. SENATE HOURS AFTER WINNING THE HOUSE - DDHQ”
- @KobeissiLetter — “Nasdaq 100 futures are now down more than -2% tonight.”
- @KobeissiLetter — “BREAKING: US stock market futures erase all losses and turn positive on the day. A massive post-election reversal is currently underway.”
- @FirstSquawk — “GOLD RISES 3 PCT AS DOLLAR, YIELDS FALL ON DEMOCRAT WIN”
- @KobeissiLetter — “BREAKING: President Trump posts a picture of a hat stating "VETO" after Democrats win the US House and Senate.”
- @wallstengine — “Trump says he is “absolutely willing to accept” the midterm election results and will work with Democrats, per NYT.”
- @FirstSquawk — “IRAN LEADER KHAMENEI SAYS FURTHER ATTACKS TO BRING ‘FAR WIDER’ RESPONSE”
- @FirstSquawk — “AMD Q3 2026 REVENUE $13.38 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $13.08 BLN, WITH ADJUSTED EPS $2.09, ABOVE ESTIMATE OF $1.97”
- @wallstengine — “Revenue: ~$17B +/- 3% (Est. $16.23B)”
- @wallstengine — “Adj. EPS: $1.20 (Est. $1.08)”
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