Most people open Polymarket for elections or sports. Hans323 opens it for the weather.
Bloomberg describes him as a 23-year-old law student in Germany who trades the daily high temperature in London and New York, and who ranks sixth among all-time earners in Polymarket's weather markets.
His biggest hit, as reported by Odaily, was a London bet: about $92,632 on one temperature bracket priced around 8 cents. The day's high landed in his bracket, and the trade made roughly $1.11 million.
How weather markets work
Each city gets a ladder of Yes/No markets, one per degree: will London's high tomorrow be 8°C, 9°C, 10°C, and so on. Only one bracket can win. Prices run from 1 to 99 cents, and a winning share pays $1.
The markets settle on an official weather-station reading, usually at an airport. That detail matters: traders watch forecast models, live station data, even how a sensor behaves in direct sun.
He isn't the only one
Bloomberg also found smaller, steadier players, like a trader called 1-800-LIQUIDITY, up about $33,000 since October, and a company fund that trades max-temperature contracts as a business. Weather has quietly become one of Polymarket's busier corners.
The trade, in numbers
- Market
- London's highest temperature for the day, one 1-degree bracket
- Side
- Yes
- Entry
- About 8¢ a share
- Size
- $92,632
- Result
- About $1.11 million profit, as reported
A share bought at 8¢ pays $1 if it wins, about 12 times the money. It loses everything if the day's high lands in any other bracket, which the price said would happen about 92% of the time.
WHAT TO TAKE FROM IT
Cheap brackets pay big because they usually lose. The traders who do well here know exactly which station settles the market and read the forecast better than the price does.
Look around Polymarket yourself
See the odds on the Fed, CPI and earnings, and trade them.
Who can use it: polymarket.com doesn't take new trades from the US, the UK, Ontario and a list of other places. US traders use Polymarket US instead, and our links send you to the one you can use.
mrkts earns a referral reward if you sign up and trade. Not available everywhere; our link checks your region.
The risks
- One trader's result says nothing about what you'll make. Most people who trade these markets don't end up ahead.
- A bracket priced at 8¢ loses about 92% of the time by the market's own odds. Most long-shot bets go to zero.
- Profit figures here are as reported by the outlets we link to. We couldn't check them against Polymarket's own records.
Sources (3)
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We report what traders did from public sources, listed above. It isn't a tip to copy any trade, and nothing here is investment advice. See our disclosures.