- Stocks are holding Monday's big rally: the S&P proxy is up about 0.1% premarket and the Dow proxy about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq proxy slips about 0.3%.
- Crude is down about 1.4% and gold about 1.6% as Brent breaks below $90 on hopes for calm with Iran.
- October CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET with the prior at 0.6% and core at 0.3%, and CoreWeave reports after the close.
Key numbers
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Tuesday, November 10 is CPI day, and the overnight story is oil. Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August after President Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, which several major news outlets have reported. The first scheduled release is October CPI at 8:30 AM ET.
Setup into the open
Monday closed Euphoric, with the S&P proxy up about 2.4% and the Nasdaq proxy about 3.5%. As of about 6:17 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +0.13%, the Nasdaq proxy −0.31%, small caps +0.04% and the Dow proxy +0.34%. The chip ETF is −0.41% and Nvidia +0.31% after Monday's slide. Crude is −1.37%, gold −1.58%, long Treasuries −0.13% and the vol proxy +0.58%. Bitcoin is near $74,200, about −0.7% since midnight.
What to watch
After Monday's close, Take-Two is up about 4.2% premarket and Rocket Lab down about 6.1%, while Occidental is about flat after wires reported it beat profit estimates.
This morning, TransDigm reports with a calendar estimate of $12.15 a share and an implied move of about 6.8%, and Sea with $1.04 and about 12.6%. CPI's prior reading was 0.6% month over month, with core at 0.3%; wire surveys of economists expect about 0.3% and 0.2%. After the close, CoreWeave reports with an estimate of −$1.17 and an implied move of about 15.4%, and Petrobras with $1.38 and about 4.4%.
What X is saying
Posts say Fed Governor Waller backs a December hike and would consider a half-point move if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, which makes the core number the one to watch. Accounts report hike odds for December above 80%. Wires note that oil and bond yields falling together could help stocks.
Insight
The market has already done its celebrating. Cheaper oil takes pressure off headline inflation, but the Fed is watching core, and a hike is mostly priced. That leaves CPI as a test of size, not direction: a soft core reading eases the half-point talk, while a hot one could undo part of Monday's rally in the rate-sensitive names.
Desk stance
The mood stays Euphoric from Monday's close because nothing overnight has reversed it. It would cool to Grinding at the 9:45 AM ET refresh if the S&P proxy holds a small gain after CPI, and to Spooked if a hot core print sends the vol proxy and yields higher together.
- Played outOil's Middle East runCrude is down about 1.4% premarket and Brent is under $90 for the first time since August, extending the slide that ended this story.
- SteadyThe AI spending boomNvidia is up about 0.3% premarket after Monday's drop, while the chip ETF slips about 0.4% as tech catches its breath.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar 2026-11-10: CPI (Oct) 8:30 AM ET, prior 0.6% M/M; core CPI prior 0.3% M/M; no forecast listed; NFIB small business optimism 6:00 AM ET, prior 97.9
- Earnings premarket 2026-11-10: TDG (EPS est 12.15, implied ~6.8%), SE (1.04, ~12.6%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-10: CRWV (EPS est −1.17, implied ~15.4%), PBR (1.38, ~4.4%)
- Earnings afterhours 2026-11-09: OXY, TTWO, RKLB
- Premarket quotes as of about 6:17 AM ET vs Nov 9 close: SPY 753.70 (+0.13%), QQQ 677.22 (−0.31%), IWM 282.62 (+0.04%), DIA 525.10 (+0.34%, last trade 6:01 AM ET), RSP 221.26 (+0.14%), SMH 485.43 (−0.41%), TLT 81.85 (−0.13%), VXX 19.13 (+0.58%), USO 140.71 (−1.37%), GLD 373.55 (−1.58%), NVDA 179.22 (+0.31%), TTWO 216.00 (+4.15%, 6:06 AM ET), RKLB 55.26 (−6.12%), OXY 55.60 (−0.29%, 5:15 AM ET); UUP no premarket trade (Mon close 28.97)
- BTC mark about $74,200 at 6:18 AM ET (−0.66% vs ET midnight open 74,697)
- Monday Nov 9 closing mood Euphoric and closes (S&P proxy +2.36%, Nasdaq proxy +3.45%) from recap-2026-11-09 and data/market/hero.json
- Wire economist surveys, Nov 10: October CPI expected +0.3% M/M, core +0.2% M/M
- @business — “Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August after US President Donald Trump said further strikes on Iran wouldn’t be necessary”
- @FT — “Oil falls below $90 as Trump pulls back from threat to strike Iran”
- @CNBC — “Brent crude falls below $90 for first time since August on Iran war de-escalation hopes”
- @Reuters — “Occidental beats profit estimates as higher oil prices offset output decline”
- @Cointelegraph — “Fed Governor Waller leans toward a 25 bps hike in December if inflation cools, but floated a 50 bps hike if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher.”
- @degen_joker — “With 84% odds of a December hike priced in, a soft 0.2% core CPI today could catch a lot of people offside.”
- @business — “Oil and bond yields are both falling, providing a possible tailwind for the stock market.”
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