Options 101 · Module 10 of 10

Planning around events with the mrkts.gg calendar

In this lesson

Before any options position, list the scheduled events inside its life (economic releases, earnings, ex-dividend dates, expiration) and explain each one's likely effect on price and IV, using the mrkts.gg econ, earnings and week-ahead pages.

5
short parts
12
questions
~15
minutes
Read the whole lesson on one page

Planning around events with the mrkts.gg calendar: the lesson

Risk shows up on a schedule

Scheduled events are where options risk concentrates. IV usually rises into expirations that cover an event and falls after it.

  • Earnings: the date, and before the open (BMO) or after the close (AMC).
  • Economic releases: CPI, jobs and FOMC, with times in ET. They move index options and many stocks.
  • Ex-dividend dates: early-assignment risk for short calls.
  • Expiration: pin risk and your broker's cutoff times.
  • A same-day option still has event risk if a release lands before its close.

Before the bell or after

Before the open (BMO)After the close (AMC)
The report comes out before the session opensThe report comes out after the session ends
Tuesday BMO: the last close before it is Monday'sTuesday AMC: the last close before it is Tuesday's
Buying Tuesday morning is too late to hold throughBuying Tuesday afternoon still holds through

IV rises into the event, then falls

The weekly option that includes the report prices the event, so its IV climbs into it and drops once the number is out. The next weekly doesn't include the event, so its IV stays lower.

0255075024Days until the reportImplied volatility (%)
Illustrative IV for the weekly that includes a report. It climbs from 60% to 85% into the report and falls to 40% the day after.

Illustrative shape, not real quotes.

Build the checklist

  1. Step 1: Mark today and expiration at the two ends.
  2. Step 2: Add every economic release, earnings date and ex-dividend date between them, with times in ET.
  3. Step 3: Next to each, write what it could do to the price and to IV.

The mrkts.gg economic and earnings calendars and the week-ahead page give you the dates and times.

When you read down the finished list, every date has a time and an effect. If a row has neither, the plan isn't finished. The worked example after this lesson builds one for a 30-day position.

What the calendar can't tell you

Each earnings page shows the implied move and how past moves compared. Sometimes the real move was bigger, sometimes smaller.

Buying right after the event avoids the crush, but the event move has already happened. That's a different bet, not a free one.

Worked example: A 30-day position on stock ABC (dates are made up)

Illustrative numbers, not real quotes.

Build the list in three steps.

  • Mark today and expiration at the two ends.
  • Add every economic release, earnings date and ex-dividend date between them, with times in ET.
  • Next to each, write what it could do to the price and to IV.
DateEvent (from the calendar)Effect on the position
Tue 8:30 AM ETCPIIndex-wide move risk. Short-dated IV elevated into it
Wed 2:00 PM ETFOMC decisionSame, plus the 2:30 PM press conference
Thu AMCABC earnings, implied move ±7%Gap risk, then IV crush on Friday
Day 22ABC ex-dividendEarly assignment risk on a short ITM call
Day 30ExpirationPin risk near short strikes. Close or roll before the cutoff

One detail trips people up: which close is the last one before a report?

Report timeLast close before it
After the close (AMC) on TuesdayTuesday's close
Before the open (BMO) on TuesdayMonday's close
  • If you want to hold through a report, you must open the position by that close.

Education only, not investment advice. Options involve risk. Read the OCC's Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Example numbers are illustrative.