- Last week went Euphoric, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, and Nvidia's CEO exit won it: the stock fell about 12.8% to $162.85 while the S&P proxy rose about 2.6%, the Nasdaq proxy about 3.6% and the chip ETF about 4.9%, and gold lost about 4.6%.
- The week's question is whether the AI trade holds through Nvidia's report Tuesday after the close (options price about ±7.3%) and Anthropic's expected pricing Wednesday and first trade Thursday. No CPI, jobs report or Fed decision is scheduled, and FOMC minutes come Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET.
- Monday has the Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 AM ET (prior 25.5), with Baidu and Tyson Foods reporting before the open and AECOM after the close. The desk expects an event note Tuesday evening on Nvidia and Thursday on Anthropic's first trade.
Key numbers
The week ahead
- 10:00 AM Final consumer sentiment (prior 48)
- Monthly options expiration
- BJ BMO
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Last week had one big day and four choppy ones. Monday closed Euphoric as the S&P proxy jumped about 2.4%, its best day since April, and Tuesday through Friday all closed Choppy. For the week the S&P proxy rose about 2.6% and the Nasdaq proxy about 3.6%, but Nvidia fell about 12.8% in its worst week since April 2025, accounts report, and the chip ETF gave back about 4.0% over Thursday and Friday. Long Treasuries lost about 3.1% and the dollar gained about 1.3%. So this week asks one thing: does the AI trade hold when Nvidia reports and Anthropic is expected to list within three days?
The week's question
Can the AI trade hold through both tests? Nvidia reports Tuesday after the close, its first report since Jensen Huang resigned Thursday and finance chief Colette Kress became interim CEO. The stock closed Friday at $162.85, and options price a move of about 7.3% either way, or roughly $151 to $175; its last eight reports moved it between 0.5% and 8.7%. Anthropic is expected to price Wednesday and begin trading Thursday under the symbol ANT on Nasdaq, subject to regulatory clearance, according to its SEC-filed IPO website, with 825 million shares offered at an estimated $70 to $78, or about $58 billion to $64 billion. A move inside the range and an on-time deal would give the Nasdaq 100, which closed Friday about 0.3% under its 200-day average of 28,039, room to win that line back. A move beyond the range, or a slipped pricing date, would put the chip selloff back in charge. Tuesday evening answers the first half and Thursday the second, and the desk expects an event note on each: Nvidia on Tuesday evening and Anthropic's first trade on Thursday.
Stories in play
The AI spending boom (cooling) takes its tests at Nvidia on Tuesday and Palo Alto Networks on Wednesday after the close, with an implied move of about 9.4%. Nvidia's CEO shake-up (steady) gets its first earnings call under the interim CEO. Can the average stock catch up? (heating) meets the consumer: Home Depot Tuesday, then Lowe's, Target and TJX Wednesday and Walmart Thursday, all before the open, with implied moves from about 4.4% to 7.6%.
What X is saying
Posts say the weekend's talk is Nvidia's leadership. Accounts report that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday the company needs a “dramatic shakeup” and should look outside the company for its next chief executive. That is reported talk, not a company statement. One trader's post names the Anthropic listing as the point where the AI rally could fade if it stays on schedule. After Friday's close the FAA ordered a nationwide ground stop, and the S&P proxy slipped about 0.6% after hours (749.60 against a 754.25 close); posts say the Transportation Secretary is investigating whether a router error or defect caused it.
Desk stance for Monday
The desk expects Monday to open Choppy. The Empire State survey at 8:30 AM ET is the only scheduled release, with Baidu, KE Holdings, Tyson Foods and Aramark before the open and AECOM after the close, so nothing on the calendar is likely to move the whole index. The tone would turn Rattled if the S&P proxy falls more than about 0.8% with the vol proxy jumping, and Grinding if the chip ETF steadies ahead of Tuesday's report.
- CoolingThe AI spending boomThe chip ETF rose about 4.9% last week but fell about 4.0% on Thursday and Friday; Nvidia Tuesday (about ±7.3%) and Palo Alto Networks Wednesday (about ±9.4%) are the week's tests.
- SteadyNvidia's CEO shake-upNvidia fell about 12.8% last week as Huang resigned; Tuesday's report is the first under interim CEO Colette Kress, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said Sunday the company needs a “dramatic shakeup,” accounts report.
- HeatingCan the average stock catch up?The equal-weight S&P rose about 2.4% last week against about 3.6% for the Nasdaq proxy, and gained about 0.2% Friday while the Nasdaq proxy fell about 1.2%; the retailers Tuesday through Thursday test the consumer.
SOURCES ›
- Economic calendar, pulled 10:55 AM ET 2026-11-15: Mon 11/16 8:30 AM ET Empire State Manufacturing Survey (prior 25.5); Tue 11/17 8:30 AM ET October retail sales (prior +0.8%) and import prices (prior +1.1%), 9:15 AM ET industrial production (prior +0.7%) and capacity utilization (prior 76.9%), 9:30 AM ET Cleveland Fed President Hammack at Brookings, 10:00 AM ET NAHB housing index (prior 29); Wed 11/18 8:30 AM ET housing starts (prior 1.20M), 10:00 AM ET pending home sales (prior −7.3%), 2:00 PM ET FOMC meeting minutes; Thu 11/19 8:30 AM ET weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey (prior 20.9), 10:00 AM ET leading indicators, 12:30 PM ET Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; Fri 11/20 10:00 AM ET final consumer sentiment (prior 48). No forecasts posted. No CPI, jobs report or FOMC decision on the calendar; next CPI Dec 10, jobs Dec 4 and FOMC decision Dec 9 per the econ pages' schedules.
- Earnings calendar, pulled 10:55 AM ET 2026-11-15, expected moves: Mon 11/16 BMO BIDU (5.86%), BEKE (6.82%), TSN (4.95%), ARMK (4.26%), AMC ACM (6.48%); Tue 11/17 BMO HD (4.38%), DIS (5.06%), JD (5.65%), AMC NVDA (7.31%, EPS est $2.49); Wed 11/18 BMO TJX (4.82%), LOW (4.44%), TGT (7.61%), AMC PANW (9.45%); Thu 11/19 BMO WMT (5.29%), BABA (6.39%), PDD (6.32%), AMC INTU (7.67%), ROST (5.74%); Fri 11/20 BMO BJ (5.31%).
- Anthropic IPO dates from data/ipo/anthropic.json: pricing expected Nov 18 and first trade Nov 19, subject to regulatory clearance, per the company's IPO website filed with the SEC as a free writing prospectus on Nov 12; $70.00 to $78.00 estimated range and 825,000,000 Class A shares per S-1/A Amendment No. 2 (Nov 10). Raise of about $58 billion to $64 billion is the desk's multiplication of shares by the range ends.
- Closing quotes 4:00 PM ET 2026-11-13 vs 2026-11-06 closes: SPY 754.25 (+2.58%), QQQ 679.90 (+3.63%), IWM 277.60 (+1.44%), RSP 221.18 (+2.37%), SMH 486.60 (+4.88%), TLT 79.37 (−3.11%), VXX 18.71 (−14.76%), UUP 29.50 (+1.27%), GLD 355.43 (−4.59%), NVDA −12.76% on the 4:00 PM last trade (162.85 is the daily-bar close). Friday: QQQ −1.20%, RSP +0.21%. SMH Nov 11 close 506.96 to Nov 13 close 486.60 (−4.02%).
- After-hours quote 2026-11-13: SPY 749.60 vs the 754.25 close (−0.62%).
- Nvidia daily closes 2026-10-06 (239.24) to 2026-11-13 (162.85), a 31.9% decline; next-session moves after its last eight reports from daily bars: +8.7%, −1.8%, −5.5%, −3.2%, −0.8%, +3.2%, −8.5%, +0.5% (range 0.5% to 8.7%). Implied range ±7.31% of 162.85 is about $150.95 to $174.75.
- S&P 500 close 7,561.67 and Nasdaq 100 close 27,943.74 with its 200-day average 28,039, from the desk's Spaghetti Saturday 2026-11-14 levels (index daily bars to the Nov 13 close). S&P proxy best day since April and the five-day mood record from the desk's Vibe Check Friday 2026-11-13.
- Closing summaries for Nov 9 to Nov 13 from data/market/hero.json history; closing moods from data/market/day-moods.json: Euphoric, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy.
- @zerohedge — “*NVIDIA NEEDS 'DRAMATIC SHAKEUP' IN LEADERSHIP, BESSENT SAYS”
- @DeItaone — “BESSENT SAYS NVIDIA NEEDS TO 'GO OUTSIDE THE COMPANY' IN SEARCH FOR NEW TOP EXECUTIVE IN LIGHT OF CHIP EXPORT-SPYING SCANDAL”
- @business — “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Nvidia needs a “dramatic shakeup” in leadership after the ouster of chief executive Jensen Huang”
- @PSInvestor — “Where I expect things to fall off is right around the $ANT Anthropic IPO. If it stays on schedule, pricing is Wednesday and trading starts Thursday.”
- @SecDuffy — “The @FAAnews issued a nationwide ground stop for all U.S. airports following a communication issue impacting all Air Route Traffic Control Centers. FAA technicians are investigating the issue.”
- @FirstSquawk — “U.S. Transportation Secretary: We are investigating whether the malfunction was caused by an error in installing the router or a defect in it.”
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