# Nvidia reports without its CEO Tuesday, then Anthropic's expected debut tests the AI trade Canonical URL: https://mrkts.gg/desk/sunday-setup-2026-11-15 Last updated: Nov 15, 2026, 10:54 AM ET Sunday setup · Published Nov 15, 2026, 10:54 AM ET > Last week ended Choppy after one Euphoric Monday, and Nvidia's CEO exit won it, with the stock down about 12.8% while the S&P proxy gained about 2.6%. This week asks whether the AI trade holds through Nvidia's report Tuesday and Anthropic's expected debut Thursday. ## In short - Last week went Euphoric, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, and Nvidia's CEO exit won it: the stock fell about 12.8% to $162.85 while the S&P proxy rose about 2.6%, the Nasdaq proxy about 3.6% and the chip ETF about 4.9%, and gold lost about 4.6%. - The week's question is whether the AI trade holds through Nvidia's report Tuesday after the close (options price about ±7.3%) and Anthropic's expected pricing Wednesday and first trade Thursday. No CPI, jobs report or Fed decision is scheduled, and FOMC minutes come Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. - Monday has the Empire State manufacturing survey at 8:30 AM ET (prior 25.5), with Baidu and Tyson Foods reporting before the open and AECOM after the close. The desk expects an event note Tuesday evening on Nvidia and Thursday on Anthropic's first trade. ## Key numbers - NVIDIA REPORT: Tue AMC (Implied move ±7.31% · EPS est $2.49) - ANTHROPIC (ANT): Wed · Thu (Expected pricing and first trade · $70–$78) - OCTOBER RETAIL SALES: Tue 8:30 AM (Prior +0.8%) - FOMC MINUTES: Wed 2:00 PM (No rate decision this week) - SPY WEEK: +2.58% (Fri close vs Nov 6 close) - SMH WEEK: +4.88% (Chips, after a −4.02% Thu–Fri) - NVDA WEEK: −12.76% (Worst week since April 2025, accounts report) - WALMART: Thu BMO (Implied move ±5.29%) ## The week ahead - Mon, Nov 16: 8:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey (prior 25.5); Earnings: BIDU BMO; Earnings: BEKE BMO; Earnings: TSN BMO; Earnings: ARMK BMO; Earnings: ACM AMC - Tue, Nov 17: 8:30 AM October retail sales (prior +0.8%); 8:30 AM October import prices (prior +1.1%); 9:15 AM Industrial production (prior +0.7%); 9:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks; Desk event note expected: Nvidia's report; Earnings: HD BMO; Earnings: DIS BMO; Earnings: JD BMO; Earnings: NVDA AMC - Wed, Nov 18: 8:30 AM October housing starts (prior 1.20M); 10:00 AM Pending home sales (prior −7.3%); 2:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes; Anthropic pricing expected; Earnings: TJX BMO; Earnings: LOW BMO; Earnings: TGT BMO; Earnings: PANW AMC - Thu, Nov 19: 8:30 AM Weekly jobless claims; 8:30 AM Philadelphia Fed survey (prior 20.9); 12:30 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; Anthropic first trade expected, desk event note expected; Earnings: WMT BMO; Earnings: BABA BMO; Earnings: PDD BMO; Earnings: INTU AMC; Earnings: ROST AMC - Fri, Nov 20: 10:00 AM Final consumer sentiment (prior 48); Monthly options expiration; Earnings: BJ BMO Last week had one big day and four choppy ones. Monday closed Euphoric as the S&P proxy jumped about 2.4%, its best day since April, and Tuesday through Friday all closed Choppy. For the week the S&P proxy rose about 2.6% and the Nasdaq proxy about 3.6%, but Nvidia fell about 12.8% in its worst week since April 2025, accounts report, and the chip ETF gave back about 4.0% over Thursday and Friday. Long Treasuries lost about 3.1% and the dollar gained about 1.3%. So this week asks one thing: does the AI trade hold when Nvidia reports and Anthropic is expected to list within three days? *Chart: Line chart of Nvidia's daily closes from the Oct 6 peak of $239.24 to $162.85 on Nov 13, down about 32%, with the Nov 12 CEO resignation marked and a shaded box for the roughly 7.3% move options price for Tuesday's report, about $151 to $175. Nvidia heads into Tuesday about 32% below its October peak, with options pricing a move of about 7.3% either way.* ## The week's question Can the AI trade hold through both tests? Nvidia reports Tuesday after the close, its first report since Jensen Huang resigned Thursday and finance chief Colette Kress became interim CEO. The stock closed Friday at $162.85, and options price a move of about 7.3% either way, or roughly $151 to $175; its last eight reports moved it between 0.5% and 8.7%. Anthropic is expected to price Wednesday and begin trading Thursday under the symbol ANT on Nasdaq, subject to regulatory clearance, according to its SEC-filed IPO website, with 825 million shares offered at an estimated $70 to $78, or about $58 billion to $64 billion. A move inside the range and an on-time deal would give the Nasdaq 100, which closed Friday about 0.3% under its 200-day average of 28,039, room to win that line back. A move beyond the range, or a slipped pricing date, would put the chip selloff back in charge. Tuesday evening answers the first half and Thursday the second, and the desk expects an event note on each: Nvidia on Tuesday evening and Anthropic's first trade on Thursday. ## Stories in play The AI spending boom (cooling) takes its tests at Nvidia on Tuesday and Palo Alto Networks on Wednesday after the close, with an implied move of about 9.4%. Nvidia's CEO shake-up (steady) gets its first earnings call under the interim CEO. Can the average stock catch up? (heating) meets the consumer: Home Depot Tuesday, then Lowe's, Target and TJX Wednesday and Walmart Thursday, all before the open, with implied moves from about 4.4% to 7.6%. ## What X is saying Posts say the weekend's talk is Nvidia's leadership. Accounts report that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday the company needs a “dramatic shakeup” and should look outside the company for its next chief executive. That is reported talk, not a company statement. One trader's post names the Anthropic listing as the point where the AI rally could fade if it stays on schedule. After Friday's close the FAA ordered a nationwide ground stop, and the S&P proxy slipped about 0.6% after hours (749.60 against a 754.25 close); posts say the Transportation Secretary is investigating whether a router error or defect caused it. ## Desk stance for Monday The desk expects Monday to open Choppy. The Empire State survey at 8:30 AM ET is the only scheduled release, with Baidu, KE Holdings, Tyson Foods and Aramark before the open and AECOM after the close, so nothing on the calendar is likely to move the whole index. The tone would turn Rattled if the S&P proxy falls more than about 0.8% with the vol proxy jumping, and Grinding if the chip ETF steadies ahead of Tuesday's report. ## Scenarios - If Nvidia moves less than its implied ±7.3% and Anthropic prices on schedule: The chip ETF stops giving back last week's gain, and the Nasdaq 100 gets room to retake its 200-day average at 28,039. - If Nvidia moves beyond its implied range, or Anthropic's pricing slips past Wednesday: The chip selloff that took about 4.0% off the chip ETF on Thursday and Friday resumes, and the 200-day line stays out of reach. --- Get the Desk's daily market feature by email: https://mrkts.gg/newsletter?ref=ai&src=desk-sunday-setup-2026-11-15 AI-assisted commentary. Not investment advice.