# Brent crude slips under $90 for the first time since August before October CPI Canonical URL: https://mrkts.gg/desk/morning-2026-11-10 Last updated: Nov 10, 2026, 6:19 AM ET Morning brief · Published Nov 10, 2026, 6:19 AM ET > Crude is down about 1.4% premarket and Brent is under $90 for the first time since August after Trump stepped back from new strikes on Iran, while the S&P proxy holds a gain of about 0.1% after Monday's best day since April. October CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET, with a December hike already mostly priced. ## In short - Stocks are holding Monday's big rally: the S&P proxy is up about 0.1% premarket and the Dow proxy about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq proxy slips about 0.3%. - Crude is down about 1.4% and gold about 1.6% as Brent breaks below $90 on hopes for calm with Iran. - October CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET with the prior at 0.6% and core at 0.3%, and CoreWeave reports after the close. ## Key numbers - SPY PRE: +0.13% (6:17 AM ET vs Mon close) - QQQ PRE: −0.31% (6:17 AM ET · tech pauses) - DIA PRE: +0.34% (6:01 AM ET · Dow leads) - USO PRE: −1.37% (6:17 AM ET · crude slides) - GLD PRE: −1.58% (6:15 AM ET · gold gives back) - VXX PRE: +0.58% (6:16 AM ET · vol steady) - TTWO PRE: +4.15% (6:06 AM ET · after its report) - CPI (OCT): 8:30 AM (Prior 0.6% M/M · core 0.3%) Tuesday, November 10 is CPI day, and the overnight story is oil. Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August after President Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, which several major news outlets have reported. The first scheduled release is October CPI at 8:30 AM ET. ## Setup into the open Monday closed Euphoric, with the S&P proxy up about 2.4% and the Nasdaq proxy about 3.5%. As of about 6:17 AM ET, the S&P proxy is +0.13%, the Nasdaq proxy −0.31%, small caps +0.04% and the Dow proxy +0.34%. The chip ETF is −0.41% and Nvidia +0.31% after Monday's slide. Crude is −1.37%, gold −1.58%, long Treasuries −0.13% and the vol proxy +0.58%. Bitcoin is near $74,200, about −0.7% since midnight. ## What to watch After Monday's close, Take-Two is up about 4.2% premarket and Rocket Lab down about 6.1%, while Occidental is about flat after wires reported it beat profit estimates. This morning, TransDigm reports with a calendar estimate of $12.15 a share and an implied move of about 6.8%, and Sea with $1.04 and about 12.6%. CPI's prior reading was 0.6% month over month, with core at 0.3%; wire surveys of economists expect about 0.3% and 0.2%. After the close, CoreWeave reports with an estimate of −$1.17 and an implied move of about 15.4%, and Petrobras with $1.38 and about 4.4%. ## What X is saying Posts say Fed Governor Waller backs a December hike and would consider a half-point move if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, which makes the core number the one to watch. Accounts report hike odds for December above 80%. Wires note that oil and bond yields falling together could help stocks. ## Insight The market has already done its celebrating. Cheaper oil takes pressure off headline inflation, but the Fed is watching core, and a hike is mostly priced. That leaves CPI as a test of size, not direction: a soft core reading eases the half-point talk, while a hot one could undo part of Monday's rally in the rate-sensitive names. ## Desk stance The mood stays Euphoric from Monday's close because nothing overnight has reversed it. It would cool to Grinding at the 9:45 AM ET refresh if the S&P proxy holds a small gain after CPI, and to Spooked if a hot core print sends the vol proxy and yields higher together. ## Scenarios - If If core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower…: Half-point hike talk fades and the Nasdaq proxy rejoins the rally. - If If CPI lands near forecasts…: The market digests Monday's gains in a slow, narrow range. - If If core CPI prints 0.3% or higher…: Yields jump, the vol proxy rises and tech gives back part of Monday. - If If a hot print meets a reversal in crude…: Monday's rally unwinds broadly as inflation and hike fears return together. --- Get the Desk's daily market feature by email: https://mrkts.gg/newsletter?ref=ai&src=desk-morning-2026-11-10 AI-assisted commentary. Not investment advice.